RIKILT - Institute of Food Safety, Wageningen University and Research Centre, PO Box 230, NL-6700 AE Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Food Addit Contam Part A Chem Anal Control Expo Risk Assess. 2012;29(10):1593-604. doi: 10.1080/19440049.2012.691555. Epub 2012 Jun 29.
Climate change will affect the development of cereal crops and the occurrence of mycotoxins in these crops, but so far little research has been done on quantifying the expected effects. The aim of this study was to assess climate change impacts on the occurrence of deoxynivalenol in wheat grown in north-western Europe by 2040, considering the combined effects of shifts in wheat phenology and climate. The study used climate model data for the future period of 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. A weather generator was used for generating synthetic series of daily weather data for both the baseline and the future periods. Available models for wheat phenology and prediction of deoxynivalenol concentrations in north-western Europe were used. Both models were run for winter wheat and spring wheat, separately. The results showed that both flowering and full maturation of wheat will be earlier in the season because of climate change effects, about 1 to 2 weeks. Deoxynivalenol contamination was found to increase in most of the study region, with an increase of the original concentrations by up to 3 times. The study results may inform governmental and industrial risk managers to underpin decision-making and planning processes in north-western Europe. On the local level, deoxynivalenol contamination should be closely monitored to pick out wheat batches with excess levels at the right time. Using predictive models on a more local scale could be helpful to assist other monitoring measures to safeguard food safety in the wheat supply chain.
气候变化将影响谷物作物的发展和这些作物中霉菌毒素的发生，但迄今为止，量化预期影响的研究很少。本研究旨在评估到 2040 年，气候变化对西北欧小麦中脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇发生的影响，同时考虑到小麦物候和气候变化的综合影响。该研究使用未来时期（2031-2050 年）相对于基线时期（1975-1994 年）的气候模型数据。天气生成器用于生成基线期和未来时期的逐日天气数据的合成序列。使用了可用于西北欧小麦物候和脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇浓度预测的模型。这两个模型分别针对冬小麦和春小麦进行了运行。结果表明，由于气候变化的影响，小麦的开花和完全成熟时间将提前约 1 到 2 周。在研究区域的大部分地区，脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇污染被发现增加，原始浓度增加了 3 倍。研究结果可以为西北欧的政府和工业风险管理者提供信息，为决策和规划过程提供支持。在地方一级，应密切监测脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇污染，以便及时发现过量批次的小麦。在更局部的范围内使用预测模型可能有助于辅助其他监测措施，以确保小麦供应链中的食品安全。
