MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research, FI-31600 Jokioinen, Finland.
Food Addit Contam Part A Chem Anal Control Expo Risk Assess. 2012;29(10):1543-55. doi: 10.1080/19440049.2012.680613. Epub 2012 May 4.
In Northern Europe, changes in climate may result in better growing conditions for many crops. However, the expected warmer and more humid conditions are favourable for Fusarium head blight infections on cereals. The Fusarium species prevalent in Nordic areas to date are the same as in Central Europe: F. avenaceum, F. culmorum, F. graminearum and F. poae. The prevalence of F. graminearum in cereal grain has already increased in Central Europe and is likely to increase in the North due to the expected changes in weather conditions, reduced tillage and the predicted increase in maize cultivation in Nordic countries. The possible weather extremes predispose cereals to Fusarium infections by increasing the populations of insect pests injuring plants. Adverse conditions may even create conditions suitable for F. subglutinans or F. verticilloides to infect maize and possibly other cereals in rotation in southern parts of Scandinavia. The importance of the species that infect in relatively dry conditions, F. langsethiae and F. poae, may also increase on winter cereals which are predicted to be more prevalent in future farming. If the number of crop species cultivated will increase and non-cereal crops are included in rotations effects of reduced tillage on Fusarium infections in grain could be limited. The predicted changes in climate towards 2050 are expected to slightly change Fusarium species composition in Northern Europe. An increase in F. graminearum and possibly the invasion of northern parts of Central Europe and Denmark by fumonisin producers is expected.
在北欧，气候变化可能导致许多农作物的生长条件得到改善。然而，预计更温暖和更潮湿的条件有利于谷物上的镰刀菌穗腐病感染。迄今为止，北欧地区流行的镰刀菌与中欧相同：禾谷镰刀菌、燕麦镰刀菌、赤霉和腐皮镰刀菌。在中欧，谷物中禾谷镰刀菌的流行率已经增加，由于预计天气条件变化、耕作减少以及北欧国家玉米种植预计增加，在北方这种情况可能会增加。可能的极端天气会通过增加伤害植物的害虫种群，使谷物更容易受到镰刀菌感染。不利的条件甚至可能为 F. subglutinans 或 F. verticilloides 感染玉米以及在斯堪的纳维亚南部轮作的可能其他谷物创造适宜条件。在未来的农业中预计更为普遍的冬季谷物上，感染相对干燥条件的物种，如 F. langsethiae 和 F. poae 的重要性也可能增加。如果种植的作物种类增加并且包括非谷物作物，则减少耕作对谷物中镰刀菌感染的影响可能会受到限制。预计到 2050 年的气候变化预计会使北欧的镰刀菌物种组成略有变化。预计 F. graminearum 的数量会增加，并且可能会有来自中欧和丹麦北部的产伏马菌素镰刀菌入侵。
