Department of Physical Therapy (HC302), AVANS University of Applied Sciences, PO Box 90116, 4800 RA Breda, The Netherlands.
J Clin Epidemiol. 2012 Dec;65(12):1257-66. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2012.05.007. Epub 2012 Sep 6.
To summarize the methodological quality and developmental stage of prediction models for musculoskeletal complaints that are relevant for physical therapists in primary care.
A systematic literature search was carried out in the databases of Medline, Embase, and Cinahl. Studies on prediction models for musculoskeletal complaints that can be used by primary care physical therapists were included. Methodological quality of the studies was assessed and relevant study characteristics were extracted.
The search retrieved 4,702 references of which 29 studies were included in this review. The study quality of the included studies showed substantial variation. The studied populations consisted mostly of back (n=10) and neck pain (n=6) patients, and patients with knee complaints (n=4). Most studies (n=22) used "perceived recovery" as primary outcome. Most prediction models (n=18) were at the derivation level of development.
Many prediction models are available for a wide range of patient populations. The developmental stage of most models is preliminary and the study quality is often moderate. We do not recommend physiotherapist to use these models yet. All models reviewed here are in the developmental stage and need validation and impact evaluation before using them in daily practice.
总结与初级保健物理治疗师相关的肌肉骨骼疾病预测模型的方法学质量和发展阶段。
在 Medline、Embase 和 Cinahl 数据库中进行了系统的文献检索。纳入了可被初级保健物理治疗师使用的肌肉骨骼疾病预测模型的研究。评估了研究的方法学质量，并提取了相关的研究特征。
检索到 4702 篇参考文献，其中 29 篇研究纳入了本综述。纳入研究的研究质量差异较大。研究人群主要包括背部疼痛（n=10）和颈部疼痛（n=6）患者，以及膝关节疼痛患者（n=4）。大多数研究（n=22）将“感知恢复”作为主要结局。大多数预测模型（n=18）处于开发的推导阶段。
有许多预测模型适用于广泛的患者人群。大多数模型的发展阶段还处于初级阶段，研究质量通常为中等。我们不建议物理治疗师使用这些模型。这里回顾的所有模型都处于开发阶段，在日常实践中使用之前需要验证和影响评估。
