The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, UK.
Int J Biometeorol. 2013 Jul;57(4):605-14. doi: 10.1007/s00484-012-0588-9. Epub 2012 Sep 9.
The climatic sensitivity of four important agriculture crops (wheat, barley, oats, potatoes) in a northern temperate bioclimatic region is investigated using national-level yield data for 1963-2005. The climate variables include monthly and annual meteorological data, derived bioclimatic metrics, and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Statistical analysis shows that significant relationships between yield and climate vary depending on the crop type and month but highlight the influence of precipitation (negative correlation) and sunshine duration (positive correlation) rather than temperature. Soil moisture deficit is shown to be a particular useful indicator of yield with drier summers providing the best yields for Scotland as a whole. It is also tentatively inferred that the sensitivity of these crops, particularly wheat and barley, to soil moisture deficits has increased in recent years. This suggests that improved crop yields are optimised for dry sunny years despite the continued prevalence of considerable inter-annual variability in seasonal weather.
利用 1963-2005 年全国范围内的产量数据，研究了北方温带生物气候区四种重要农作物（小麦、大麦、燕麦、土豆）的气候敏感性。气候变量包括月和年气象数据、衍生的生物气候指标以及北大西洋涛动指数。统计分析表明，产量与气候之间的显著关系因作物类型和月份而异，但突出了降水（负相关）和日照时间（正相关）的影响，而不是温度。研究表明，土壤湿度亏缺是产量的一个特别有用的指标，整个苏格兰夏季干旱有利于提高产量。此外，还推测这些作物（尤其是小麦和大麦）对土壤湿度亏缺的敏感性近年来有所增加。这表明，尽管季节性天气的年际变化仍然很大，但在持续干旱晴朗的年份，作物产量得到了优化。
