School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada,
Prev Sci. 2012 Dec;13(6):562-73. doi: 10.1007/s11121-012-0282-5.
The development of effective prevention initiatives requires a detailed understanding of the characteristics and needs of the target audience. To properly identify at-risk individuals, it is crucial to clearly delineate risky from acceptable behavior. Whereas health behavior campaigns commonly use single conditions (e.g., lack of condom use) to identify high-risk cohorts, many risk behaviors are more complex and context dependent, rendering a single condition approach inadequate. Out-of-bounds skiing, an activity associated with voluntary exposure to avalanche hazard, is an example of such a multifaceted risk-taking activity. Using a dataset from an extensive online survey on out-of-bounds skiing, we present an innovative approach for identifying at-risk individuals in complex risk environments. Based on a risk management framework, we first examine risk-taking preferences of out-of-bounds skiers with respect to exposure and preparedness--the two main dimensions of risk management--separately. Our approach builds on existing person-centered research and uses Latent Class Analysis to assign survey participants to mutually exclusive behavioral classes on these two dimensions. Discrete Choice Experiments are introduced as a useful method for examining exposure preferences in the context of variable external conditions. The two class designations are then combined using a risk matrix to assign overall risk levels to each survey participant. The present approach complements existing person-centered prevention research on the antecedents of risk-taking by offering a process-oriented method for examining behavioral patterns with respect to the activity itself. Together, the two approaches can offer a much richer perspective for informing the design of effective prevention initiatives.
制定有效的预防措施需要深入了解目标人群的特点和需求。为了正确识别高风险个体，必须明确区分危险行为和可接受行为。虽然健康行为宣传活动通常使用单一条件（例如，缺乏使用安全套）来确定高风险人群，但许多风险行为更为复杂，依赖于具体情境，因此单一条件方法不够充分。越界滑雪就是一个涉及自愿暴露于雪崩危险的多方面冒险活动的例子。我们使用了一项关于越界滑雪的广泛在线调查数据集，提出了一种在复杂风险环境中识别高风险个体的创新方法。基于风险管理框架，我们首先分别研究了越界滑雪者在暴露和准备程度方面的风险偏好，这是风险管理的两个主要维度。我们的方法基于现有的人本研究，并使用潜在类别分析将调查参与者分配到这两个维度上的互斥行为类别中。离散选择实验被引入作为在可变外部条件下研究暴露偏好的有用方法。然后，使用风险矩阵将这两个类别指定组合起来，为每个调查参与者分配总体风险水平。这种方法补充了关于风险行为前因的现有人本预防研究，提供了一种面向过程的方法，用于研究与活动本身相关的行为模式。这两种方法结合起来，可以为制定有效的预防措施提供更丰富的视角。
