Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2013 Mar;28(3):149-55. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2012.08.022. Epub 2012 Sep 18.
Regime shifts from one ecological state to another are often portrayed as sudden, dramatic, and difficult to reverse. Yet many regime shifts unfold slowly and imperceptibly after a tipping point has been exceeded, especially at regional and global scales. These long, smooth transitions between equilibrium states are easy to miss, ignore, or deny, confounding management and governance. However, slow responses by ecosystems after transgressing a dangerous threshold also affords borrowed time - a window of opportunity to return to safer conditions before the new state eventually locks in and equilibrates. In this context, the most important challenge is a social one: convincing enough people to confront business-as-usual before time runs out to reverse unwanted regime shifts even after they have already begun.
从一种生态状态向另一种生态状态的转变通常被描绘为突然的、戏剧性的，而且很难逆转。然而，许多状态转变在超过临界点后会缓慢而难以察觉地展开，尤其是在区域和全球范围内。这些在平衡状态之间的漫长、平稳的转变很容易被忽视或否认，从而给管理和治理带来混乱。然而，生态系统在超过危险阈值后做出的缓慢反应也为我们赢得了时间——一个在新状态最终锁定并达到平衡之前回到更安全状态的机会之窗。在这种情况下，最重要的挑战是一个社会挑战：在时间耗尽之前，说服足够多的人停止现状，即使状态转变已经开始，也要努力将其逆转。
