Heaton T B
Department of Sociology, Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah 84602.
Demography. 1990 Feb;27(1):55-63.
Although there is evidence that the number and ages of children influence marital stability, studies have not systematically tracked the risk of marital disruption throughout the child-rearing years. This study uses marital and fertility histories from the June 1985 Current Population Survey to examine this issue. Continuous-time regression models with ages and numbers of children as time-varying covariates are estimated. Net of controls for age at marriage, year of marriage, education, and marital duration, stability increases with family size up to the third child but starts to decline as family size reaches five or more children. Aging of children is disruptive until the youngest child reaches adulthood, after which marriages become much more stable. Arrival and aging of children is an important dynamic with strong implications for marital stability.
尽管有证据表明孩子的数量和年龄会影响婚姻稳定性，但此前的研究并未系统地跟踪整个育儿阶段婚姻破裂的风险。本研究利用1985年6月当期人口调查中的婚姻和生育史来探讨这一问题。我们估计了以孩子的年龄和数量作为时变协变量的连续时间回归模型。在剔除了结婚年龄、结婚年份、教育程度和婚姻持续时间等控制变量的影响后，家庭规模在第三个孩子之前婚姻稳定性随家庭规模的增加而上升，但当家庭规模达到五个或更多孩子时开始下降。孩子成长过程中婚姻稳定性会受到干扰，直到最小的孩子成年，此后婚姻会变得更加稳定。孩子的出生和成长是一个重要动态因素，对婚姻稳定性有着重大影响。
