Fachinger U
Ökonomie und Demographischer Wandel, Institut für Gerontologie, Universität Vechta, Driverstr. 23, 49377, Vechta, Deutschland.
Z Gerontol Geriatr. 2012 Oct;45(7):610-7. doi: 10.1007/s00391-012-0393-4.
Changes of wealth, income, and expenditure under the aspect of the economic potential of the elderly are considered in this article. Overall, it is shown that it is necessary to take a skeptical view regarding the conclusions about an on-going positive development of the economic potential. On the one hand, the reduction of the statutory pension level will lead to a reduction of the household income because pensions from the statutory old age pension systems will continue be the main component of household income after retirement. On the other hand, the inequality of the old age income distribution will rise because of the different adjustments of old age income. The expenditures will change both the amount and the structure compared to today. Due to the reduction of the pension level and therewith the purchasing power, the amount of expenditures will decrease overall and the demand for luxuries will be lower. However, statements about the structural changes of consumption are hampered by the fact that not only material resources and the price of goods and services but other factors also influence demand. For example, the human capital of the elderly of the future will be different and cohort effects will potentially account for different demand behavior.
本文探讨了从老年人经济潜力角度看财富、收入和支出的变化。总体而言，结果表明，对于经济潜力持续积极发展的结论，有必要持怀疑态度。一方面，法定养老金水平的降低将导致家庭收入减少，因为法定养老金体系的养老金在退休后仍将是家庭收入的主要组成部分。另一方面，由于老年收入调整方式不同，老年收入分配不平等将会加剧。与现在相比，支出在数量和结构上都将发生变化。由于养老金水平下降及其购买力下降，支出总额将减少，对奢侈品的需求也会降低。然而，关于消费结构变化的论断受到阻碍，因为不仅物质资源以及商品和服务价格，其他因素也会影响需求。例如，未来老年人的人力资本会有所不同，同期群效应可能导致不同的需求行为。
