Hock Heinrich, Weil David N
Mathematica Policy Research, 600 Maryland Avenue SW, Suite 550, Washington, DC 20024-2512, USA.
Department of Economics, Brown University, Box B, Providence, RI 02912, USA. NBER, Cambridge, MA, USA.
J Popul Econ. 2012 Jul 1;25(3). doi: 10.1007/s00148-011-0372-x.
We examine the effects of population aging due to declining fertility and rising elderly life expectancy on consumption possibilities in the presence of intergenerational transfers. Our analysis is based on a highly tractable continuous-time overlapping generations model in which the population is divided into three groups (youth dependents, workers, and elderly dependents) and lifecourse transitions take place in a probabilistic fashion. We show that the consumption-maximizing response to greater longevity in highly developed countries is an increase in fertility. However, with larger transfer payments, the actual fertility response will likely be the opposite, leading to further population aging.
我们研究了在存在代际转移的情况下，由于生育率下降和老年人预期寿命延长导致的人口老龄化对消费可能性的影响。我们的分析基于一个高度易处理的连续时间世代交叠模型，在该模型中，人口被分为三组（青年受抚养者、劳动者和老年受抚养者），并且生命周期转换以概率方式发生。我们表明，在高度发达国家，对更长寿命的消费最大化反应是生育率上升。然而，随着转移支付增加，实际的生育率反应可能相反，导致人口进一步老龄化。
