Brenner H, Stegmaier C
Cancer Registry of the Saarland, Saarbrücken.
Soz Praventivmed. 1990;35(1):1-4. doi: 10.1007/BF01369537.
The potential impact of the trend toward delayed childbearing or nulliparity on future breast cancer incidence is quantitatively assessed for the Saarland/FRG. Distribution of age at first birth is estimated from vital statistics for seven five-year birth cohorts from 1936-40 to 1966-70. Estimates of the relative risks associated with age at first birth or nulliparity are based on median results of 23 controlled epidemiologic studies conducted in Europe and North America. Compared to the birth cohorts around 1940, a steady increase in incidence up to about +15% is projected for the younger cohorts indicating a substantial public health impact. Using data of the population based cancer registry of the Saarland, the cumulative incidence of breast cancer up to age 50 is calculated as 1.52% for the 1936-40 birth cohort and is projected to rise to 1.75% in the 1966-70 cohort. Similar changes in fertility patterns have been observed in other parts of the FRG. Given the continuing rise in mortality from breast cancer in the FRG this stresses the need for more effective screening procedures.
针对萨尔州/联邦德国，定量评估了晚育或未育趋势对未来乳腺癌发病率的潜在影响。根据1936 - 40年至1966 - 70年七个五年出生队列的人口统计数据，估算了首次生育年龄的分布情况。首次生育年龄或未育相关相对风险的估计值基于在欧洲和北美进行的23项对照流行病学研究的中位数结果。与1940年左右的出生队列相比，预计较年轻队列的发病率将稳步上升约15%，这表明对公共卫生有重大影响。利用萨尔州基于人群的癌症登记数据，1936 - 40年出生队列50岁前乳腺癌的累积发病率计算为1.52%，预计1966 - 70年队列将升至1.75%。在联邦德国的其他地区也观察到了类似的生育模式变化。鉴于联邦德国乳腺癌死亡率持续上升，这凸显了采用更有效筛查程序的必要性。
