Department of Biology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.
Bull Math Biol. 2012 Dec;74(12):2810-9. doi: 10.1007/s11538-012-9780-7. Epub 2012 Oct 25.
For many infectious diseases, immunity wanes over time. The majority of SIRS models assume that this loss of immunity takes place at a constant rate. We study temporary immunity within a SIRS model structure if the rate of loss of immunity can depend on the time since recovery from disease. We determine the conditions under which the endemic steady state becomes unstable and periodic oscillations set in, showing that a fairly rapid change between slow and rapid immunity loss is necessary to produce oscillations.
对于许多传染病来说,免疫力会随着时间的推移而减弱。大多数 SIRS 模型假设这种免疫力的丧失是按恒定速率发生的。如果免疫丧失的速率可以依赖于从疾病中恢复的时间,我们就在 SIRS 模型结构内研究暂时免疫力。我们确定了地方病稳定状态变得不稳定并出现周期性振荡的条件,表明在缓慢和快速免疫丧失之间快速变化是产生振荡所必需的。