Rowley J T, Anderson R M, Ng T W
Parasite Epidemiology Research Group, Imperial College, London University, UK.
AIDS. 1990 Jan;4(1):47-56. doi: 10.1097/00002030-199001000-00007.
Any reduction in the rate of spread of HIV infection has consequences for the incidence and demographic effects of AIDS. In this paper, output from a published mathematical model of the dynamics of HIV transmission through heterosexual contact is used to study the implications of reducing HIV transmission on demographic patterns and national health budgets in sub-Saharan Africa. The major conclusion is that both the timing and the effectiveness of reducing HIV transmission are non-linearly related to their potential demographic and economic effects. The analysis emphasizes the benefits to be gained from a concerted effort to reduce the spread of HIV infection as early as possible in the time course of the epidemic.
艾滋病毒感染传播率的任何降低都会对艾滋病的发病率和人口统计学影响产生后果。在本文中，利用一个已发表的关于通过异性接触传播艾滋病毒动态的数学模型的输出结果，来研究降低艾滋病毒传播对撒哈拉以南非洲人口模式和国家卫生预算的影响。主要结论是，降低艾滋病毒传播的时机和效果与其潜在的人口统计学和经济影响呈非线性关系。该分析强调了在疫情发展过程中尽早齐心协力降低艾滋病毒感染传播所能带来的益处。
