Population Studies Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson Street, Room 2048 ISR, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248, USA.
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2013 Jan;68(1):107-16. doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbs104. Epub 2012 Nov 29.
Although self-rated health (SRH) is recognized as a strong and consistent predictor of mortality and functional health decline, there are relatively few studies examining SRH as a predictor of morbidity. This study examines the capacity of SRH to predict the onset of chronic disease among the late midlife population (ages 51-61 years).
Utilizing the first 9 waves (1992-2008) of the Health and Retirement Study, event history analysis was used to estimate the effect of SRH on incidence of 6 major chronic diseases (coronary heart disease, diabetes, stroke, lung disease, arthritis, and cancer) among those who reported none of these conditions at baseline (N = 4,770).
SRH was a significant predictor of onset of any chronic condition and all specific chronic conditions excluding cancer. The effect was particularly pronounced for stroke.
This research provides the strongest and most comprehensive evidence to date of the relationship between SRH and incident morbidity.
尽管自评健康（SRH）被认为是死亡率和功能健康下降的强有力且一致的预测指标，但很少有研究检查 SRH 作为发病率预测指标的作用。本研究检验了 SRH 在预测中老年人群（51-61 岁）慢性病发病中的作用。
利用健康与退休研究的前 9 个波次（1992-2008 年），采用事件历史分析估计基线时无任何这些疾病报告的人群（N=4770）的 SRH 对 6 种主要慢性疾病（冠心病、糖尿病、中风、肺部疾病、关节炎和癌症）发病的影响。
SRH 是所有慢性疾病（除癌症外）和任何慢性疾病发病的显著预测指标。对中风的影响尤为显著。
本研究提供了迄今为止关于 SRH 与发病发病率之间关系的最强和最全面的证据。
