National Research Council, Water Research Institute, Via De Blasio 5, 70123 Bari, Italy.
J Environ Manage. 2013 Jan 30;115:136-46. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.11.011. Epub 2012 Dec 14.
Water resource management is often characterized by conflicts, as a result of the heterogeneity of interests associated with a shared resource. Many water conflicts arise on a global scale and, in particular, an increasing level of conflicts can be observed in the Mediterranean basin, characterized by water scarcity. In the present work, in order to assist the conflict analysis process, and thus outline a proper groundwater management, stakeholders were involved in the process and suitable tools were used in a Mediterranean area (the Apulia region, in Italy). In particular, this paper seeks to elicit and structure farmers' mental models influencing their decision over the main water source for irrigation. The more crucial groundwater is for farmers' objectives, the more controversial is the groundwater protection strategy. Bayesian Belief Networks were developed to simulate farmers' behavior with regard to groundwater management and to assess the impacts of protection strategy. These results have been used to calculate the conflict degree in the study area, derived from the introduction of policies for the reduction of groundwater exploitation for irrigation purposes. The less acceptable the policy is, the more likely it is that conflict will develop between farmers and the Regional Authority. The results of conflict analysis were also used to contribute to the debate concerning potential conflict mitigation measures. The approach adopted in this work has been discussed with a number of experts in groundwater management policies and irrigation management, and its main strengths and weaknesses have been identified. Increasing awareness of the existence of potential conflicts and the need to deal with them can be seen as an interesting initial shift in the Apulia region's water management regime, which is still grounded in merely technical approaches.
水资源管理常常存在冲突，这是由于共享资源所涉及的利益具有异质性。许多水冲突出现在全球范围内，特别是在地中海盆地，水资源短缺导致水冲突日益加剧。在本工作中，为了协助冲突分析过程，从而制定适当的地下水管理策略，利益相关者参与了该过程，并在一个地中海地区（意大利的普利亚地区）使用了合适的工具。特别是，本文旨在了解并构建影响农民对主要灌溉水源决策的思维模式。对于农民目标而言，地下水越重要，地下水保护策略就越具争议性。贝叶斯信念网络被开发出来，以模拟农民在地下水管理方面的行为，并评估保护策略的影响。这些结果被用来计算研究区域的冲突程度，这是由于引入了减少灌溉用途地下水开采的政策。政策的可接受程度越低，农民与地区当局之间发生冲突的可能性就越大。冲突分析的结果还被用来为潜在的冲突缓解措施的辩论做出贡献。本文采用的方法与地下水管理政策和灌溉管理方面的许多专家进行了讨论，并确定了其主要的优点和缺点。对潜在冲突的存在及其应对必要性的认识不断提高，可以被视为普利亚地区水管理模式的一个有趣的初始转变，该模式仍然基于仅仅是技术方法。
