Zhang Min-Lu, Huang Zhe-Zhou, Zheng Ying
Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2012 Oct;33(10):1049-51.
To estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of breast cancer in China, in 2008.
Data from 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China (2004 - 2005) were used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of breast cancer in China in 2008. Mathematical models were used to predict the breast cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years.
In 2008, the incidence of breast cancer was 169 452 (14.2%) with the incidence rate of 21.6/100 000, ranking the second among all the cancers. Deaths due to breast cancer was 44 908 (6.1%) with mortality as 5.7/100 000, which ranked the sixth among all the cancers. The 5-year prevalence rate of breast cancer in China was 120.8/100 000, taking up the proportion as 26.1%, ranking the first among all the cancers. Breast cancer was seen more frequently among people aged between 40 to 70. Our data on prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.
Breast cancer was the second cause of incidence rates among all the cancers in China, with both increasing incidence and mortality. Population at most risk for breast cancer were those aged 40 to 70, who deserved special programs for prevention and control.
估算2008年中国乳腺癌的发病率、死亡率及5年患病率。
采用来自中国36个癌症登记处的数据以及第三次全国死因调查（2004 - 2005年）的数据，估算2008年中国乳腺癌的发病率、死亡率及5年患病率。运用数学模型预测未来20年乳腺癌的发病率和死亡率。
2008年，乳腺癌发病数为169452例（占14.2%），发病率为21.6/10万，在所有癌症中位居第二。乳腺癌死亡数为44908例（占6.1%），死亡率为5.7/10万，在所有癌症中位居第六。中国乳腺癌的5年患病率为120.8/10万，占比26.1%，在所有癌症中位居第一。乳腺癌在40至70岁人群中更为常见。我们的预测数据显示，未来20年中国乳腺癌的发病率和死亡率将逐渐上升。
乳腺癌是中国所有癌症中发病率第二高的病因，发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势。乳腺癌风险最高的人群是40至70岁的人群，他们应得到专门的防控项目。
