Li Qian, DU Jia, Guan Peng, DU Jun, Qu Chun-feng, Dai Min
Cancer Institute and Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, National Office for Cancer Prevention and Control, Beijing 100021, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2012 Jun;33(6):554-7.
To estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of liver cancer in 2008, China.
Data from both 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China (2004 - 2005) were used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of liver cancer in 2008 in the country by using the mathematical models to predict the liver cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years.
In 2008, the incident cases of liver cancer was 402 208 (14.3% of the total cancers) and the number of deaths from liver cancer was 372 079 (19.0% of the total cancers). The incidence rate was 25.7/100 000, ranking the third among all cancers. The mortality rate was 23.7/100 000, ranking the second among all the cancers. The 5-year prevalence of liver cancer was 296 082 (6.4% of the total cancers) with the proportion as 27.7/ 100 000, ranking the sixth among all the cancers. 72.8% of the liver cancer cases appeared in men and the sex ratio of male to female was 2.7:1. In terms of deaths due to liver cancer, 74.3% of them occurred in men, with sex ratio of male to female as 2.9:1. At any age group, the incidence and mortality of liver cancer among males were higher than those of females. Liver cancer happened more frequently among people older than 40 years of age, particularly among males. Data under our prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.
Liver cancer is one of the most important public health issues in China. Both incidence and mortality of liver cancer have been increasing in China. The key populations for liver cancer prevention and control programs should be those who were older than 40-year-old, particularly on men.
估算2008年中国肝癌的发病率、死亡率及5年患病率。
利用来自36个癌症登记处的数据以及中国第三次全国死因调查（2004 - 2005年）的数据，通过数学模型预测未来20年肝癌的发病率和死亡率，以此估算2008年中国肝癌的发病率、死亡率及5年患病率。
2008年，肝癌新发病例为402208例（占所有癌症病例的14.3%），肝癌死亡病例数为372079例（占所有癌症病例的19.0%）。发病率为25.7/10万，在所有癌症中排名第三。死亡率为23.7/10万，在所有癌症中排名第二。肝癌的5年患病率为296082例（占所有癌症病例的6.4%），患病率为27.7/10万，在所有癌症中排名第六。72.8%的肝癌病例出现在男性中，男女比例为2.7:1。在肝癌死亡病例中，74.3%发生在男性中，男女比例为2.9:1。在任何年龄组中，男性肝癌的发病率和死亡率均高于女性。肝癌在40岁以上人群中更为常见，尤其是男性。我们的预测数据显示，未来20年中国肝癌的发病率和死亡率将逐渐上升。
肝癌是中国最重要的公共卫生问题之一。中国肝癌的发病率和死亡率一直在上升。肝癌防控项目的重点人群应该是40岁以上的人群，尤其是男性。
