Ren Jian-Song, Li Qian, Guan Peng, Dai Min, Yang Ling
National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2012 Oct;33(10):1052-5.
To estimate the incidence, mortality and prevalence of most common gastrointestinal tract cancers (esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers) in China in 2008 and to predict the related incidence and mortality in the next 20 years.
Data from 36 Chinese cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China (2004 - 2005) were used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers in China in 2008. Mathematical models were used to predict the incidence and mortality of these cancers in the next 20 years.
In 2008, the incident cases of esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers were estimated to be 259 235, 464 439 and 221 313, respectively, which totally accounted for one third of all the incident cancer cases. Age-standardized incidence rates of esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers were estimated as 16.7/100 000, 29.9/100 000 and 14.2/100 000, respectively, while the mortality rates were 13.4/100 000, 22.3/100 000 and 6.9/100 000, respectively. The number of 5-year prevalent cases were estimated as 257 352 for esophageal cancer, 680 824 for gastric cancer and 509 140 for colorectal cancer, which correspondingly ranked the seventh, first and third among all the number of cancers, respectively. Till 2030, incident cases of these cancers would reach 484 923, 860 022 and 400 086, while deaths reach 412 916, 678 670 and 211 714, respectively.
Esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers had been the main digestive tract cancers in China, that causing serious health burden. As dramatic increasing burden was predicted in the next two decades for these three cancers, more attention needs to be paid accordingly.
估算2008年中国最常见的胃肠道癌症（食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌）的发病率、死亡率和患病率，并预测未来20年相关的发病率和死亡率。
利用来自36个中国癌症登记处的数据以及中国第三次全国死因调查（2004 - 2005年）的数据，估算2008年中国食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌的发病率、死亡率和5年患病率。采用数学模型预测未来20年这些癌症的发病率和死亡率。
2008年，食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌的新发病例估计分别为259235例、464439例和221313例，共占所有新发癌症病例的三分之一。食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌的年龄标准化发病率估计分别为16.7/10万、29.9/10万和14.2/10万，而死亡率分别为13.4/10万、22.3/10万和6.9/10万。食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌的5年患病例数估计分别为257352例、680824例和509140例，在所有癌症病例数中分别相应地排第七、第一和第三位。到2030年，这些癌症的新发病例数将分别达到484923例、860022例和400086例，死亡数分别达到412916例、678670例和211714例。
食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌一直是中国主要的消化道癌症，造成严重的健康负担。由于预计未来二十年这三种癌症的负担将急剧增加，因此需要相应地给予更多关注。
