Centre for Governance and Regulation, School of Management, University of Bath, , Bath, UK.
Tob Control. 2014 Jan;23(1):45-50. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2011-050385. Epub 2013 Jan 14.
A system of price-cap regulation has previously been suggested to address the market failure inherent to the tobacco industry. This would benefit public health directly (eg, by making it extremely difficult for the industry to sell cut-price cigarettes, or use price as a marketing strategy) and indirectly (eg, by reducing the available money the industry has for spending on marketing and lobbying). This paper explores the feasibility of applying such a scheme in the UK.
The impact of price-capping is modelled using optimistic and conservative scenarios, each with different assumptions, and using 2009 and 2010 profit data for the major companies selling tobacco in the UK. The models are used to calculate by how much would profit be reduced through the imposition of price caps, and thus, how much revenue could be raised in additional taxes, assuming the end price the consumer pays does not change.
Tobacco companies enjoy massive profit margins, up to 67%, in the UK. The optimistic scenario suggests a potential increase in UK tobacco tax revenue of £585.7 million in 2010 (£548.4 million in 2009), while the conservative model suggests an increase in revenue of £433.6 million in 2010 (£399.2 million in 2009). This would be approximately enough to fund, twice over, UK-wide antitobacco smuggling measures, and smoking cessation services in England, including the associated pharmacotherapies, to help people stop smoking.
Applying a system of price-cap regulation in the UK would raise around £500 million per annum (US$750 million). This is likely to be an underestimate because of cautious assumptions used in the model. These significant financial benefits, in addition to the public health benefits that would be generated, suggest this is a policy that should be given serious consideration.
此前曾有人建议采用价格上限管制制度来解决烟草行业所固有的市场失灵问题。这将直接有益于公共健康（例如，使行业极难销售低价香烟，或利用价格作为营销策略），也将间接有益于公共健康（例如，减少行业用于营销和游说的可支配资金）。本文探讨了在英国应用这种方案的可行性。
采用乐观和保守两种情景模式来模拟价格上限的影响，每种情景都有不同的假设，并使用 2009 年和 2010 年在英国销售烟草的主要公司的利润数据。这些模型用于计算通过实施价格上限会使利润减少多少，以及假设消费者支付的最终价格不变，那么可以增加多少税收收入。
英国的烟草公司享有高达 67%的巨额利润率。乐观情景表明，2010 年英国烟草税收收入可能增加 5.857 亿英镑（2009 年为 5.484 亿英镑），而保守模型则表明，2010 年税收收入可能增加 4.336 亿英镑（2009 年为 3.992 亿英镑）。这大约足以两次覆盖英国范围内的反走私烟草措施的资金，以及英格兰的戒烟服务，包括相关的药物治疗，以帮助人们戒烟。
在英国实施价格上限管制制度每年将筹集约 5 亿英镑（7.5 亿美元）。由于模型中采用了谨慎的假设，这可能是一个低估。除了将产生的公共卫生效益外，这些巨大的财政效益表明，应该认真考虑这一政策。
