Predicting insect migration density and speed in the daytime convective boundary layer.

Insect migration needs to be quantified if spatial and temporal patterns in populations are to be resolved. Yet so little ecology is understood above the flight boundary layer (i.e. >10 m) where in north-west Europe an estimated 3 billion insects km(-1) month(-1) comprising pests, beneficial insects and other species that contribute to biodiversity use the atmosphere to migrate. Consequently, we elucidate meteorological mechanisms principally related to wind speed and temperature that drive variation in daytime aerial density and insect displacements speeds with increasing altitude (150-1200 m above ground level). We derived average aerial densities and displacement speeds of 1.7 million insects in the daytime convective atmospheric boundary layer using vertical-looking entomological radars. We first studied patterns of insect aerial densities and displacements speeds over a decade and linked these with average temperatures and wind velocities from a numerical weather prediction model. Generalized linear mixed models showed that average insect densities decline with increasing wind speed and increase with increasing temperatures and that the relationship between displacement speed and density was negative. We then sought to derive how general these patterns were over space using a paired site approach in which the relationship between sites was examined using simple linear regression. Both average speeds and densities were predicted remotely from a site over 100 km away, although insect densities were much noisier due to local 'spiking'. By late morning and afternoon when insects are migrating in a well-developed convective atmosphere at high altitude, they become much more difficult to predict remotely than during the early morning and at lower altitudes. Overall, our findings suggest that predicting migrating insects at altitude at distances of ≈ 100 km is promising, but additional radars are needed to parameterise spatial covariance.