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基于 DEA 的 Malmquist 生产率指数方法对美国各州道路安全状况的基准测试。

Benchmarking road safety of U.S. states: a DEA-based Malmquist productivity index approach.

机构信息

Department of Civil Engineering, Ohio University, 271 Stocker Center, Athens, OH 45701, United States.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Apr;53:55-64. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.12.038. Epub 2013 Jan 10.

Abstract

In this study, a DEA based Malmquist index model was developed to assess the relative efficiency and productivity of U.S. states in decreasing the number of road fatalities. Even though the national trend in fatal crashes has reached to the lowest level since 1949 (Traffic Safety Annual Assessment Highlights, 2010), a state-by-state analysis and comparison has not been studied considering other characteristics of the holistic national road safety assessment problem in any work in the literature or organizational reports. In this study, a DEA based Malmquist index model was developed to assess the relative efficiency and productivity of 50 U.S. states in reducing the number of fatal crashes. The single output, fatal crashes, and five inputs were aggregated into single road safety score and utilized in the DEA-based Malmquist index mathematical model. The period of 2002-2008 was considered due to data availability for the inputs and the output considered. According to the results, there is a slight negative productivity (an average of -0.2 percent productivity) observed in the U.S. on minimizing the number of fatal crashes along with an average of 2.1 percent efficiency decline and 1.8 percent technological improvement. The productivity in reducing the fatal crashes can only be attributed to the technological growth since there is a negative efficiency growth is occurred. It can be concluded that even though there is a declining trend observed in the fatality rates, the efficiency of states in utilizing societal and economical resources towards the goal of zero fatality is not still efficient. More effective policy making towards increasing safety belt usage and better utilization of safety expenditures to improve road condition are derived as the key areas to focus on for state highway safety agencies from the scope of current research.

摘要

在这项研究中,我们开发了一种基于数据包络分析的 Malmquist 指数模型,以评估美国各州在减少道路死亡人数方面的相对效率和生产力。尽管全国范围内致命碰撞事故的趋势已达到自 1949 年以来的最低水平(《交通安全年度评估亮点》,2010 年),但在文献或组织报告中的任何工作中,都没有考虑到整体国家道路安全评估问题的其他特征,对各州进行分析和比较。在这项研究中,我们开发了一种基于数据包络分析的 Malmquist 指数模型,以评估 50 个美国州在减少致命碰撞事故数量方面的相对效率和生产力。单一输出、致命碰撞事故和五个输入被汇总成单一的道路安全评分,并在基于数据包络分析的 Malmquist 指数数学模型中使用。由于输入和输出数据的可用性,考虑了 2002-2008 年这段时间。根据结果,美国在减少致命碰撞事故数量方面存在轻微的负生产力(平均为-0.2%的生产力),同时效率下降了 2.1%,技术进步了 1.8%。在减少致命碰撞事故方面的生产力只能归因于技术增长,因为出现了负效率增长。可以得出结论,尽管死亡率呈下降趋势,但各州在利用社会和经济资源实现零死亡目标方面的效率仍不尽如人意。从当前研究的范围来看,提高安全带使用率和更好地利用安全支出来改善道路状况等更有效的政策制定被视为州公路安全机构关注的重点领域。

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