The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Risk Anal. 2013 Sep;33(9):1661-76. doi: 10.1111/risa.12016. Epub 2013 Feb 11.
This article uses decision analysis concepts and techniques to address an extremely important problem to any family with children, namely, how to avoid the tragic death of a child during the high-risk ages of 15-24. Descriptively, our analysis indicates that of the 35,000 annual deaths among this age group in the United States, approximately 20,000 could be avoided if individuals chose readily available alternatives for decisions relating to these deaths. Prescriptively, we develop a decision framework for parents and a child to both identify and proactively pursue decisions that can lower that child's exposure to life-threatening risks and positively alter decisions when facing such risks. Applying this framework for parents and the youth themselves, we illustrate the logic and process of generating proactive alternatives with numerous examples that each could pursue to lower these life-threatening risks and possibly avoid a tragic premature death, and discuss some public policy implications of our findings.
本文运用决策分析的概念和技术，探讨了一个对美国家庭来说极其重要的问题，即如何避免儿童在 15-24 岁这一高风险年龄段发生悲惨死亡。描述性地说，我们的分析表明，在美国每年 35000 例该年龄段的死亡中，如果个人选择了与这些死亡相关的现成替代方案，大约 20000 例是可以避免的。从规范性角度出发，我们为父母和孩子制定了一个决策框架，以识别和积极追求可以降低孩子面临生命威胁风险的决策，并在面临这些风险时做出积极的决策。通过应用这个框架，我们以大量的例子来说明如何为父母和年轻人自己生成主动的替代方案的逻辑和过程，这些例子每个人都可以用来降低这些生命威胁风险，并有可能避免悲惨的过早死亡，并讨论了我们发现的一些公共政策含义。
