Trock Susan C, Burke Stephen A, Cox Nancy J
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Influenza Division, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Avian Dis. 2012 Dec;56(4 Suppl):1058-61. doi: 10.1637/10204-041412-ResNote.1.
Influenza pandemics pose a continuous risk to human and animal health and may engender food security issues worldwide. As novel influenza A virus infections in humans are identified, pandemic preparedness strategies necessarily involve decisions regarding which viruses should be included for further studies and mitigation efforts. Resource and time limitations dictate that viruses determined to pose the greatest risk to public or animal health should be selected for further research to fill information gaps and, potentially, for development of vaccine candidates that could be put in libraries, manufactured and stockpiled, or even administered to protect susceptible populations of animals or people. A need exists to apply an objective, science-based risk assessment to the process of evaluating influenza viruses. During the past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began developing a tool to evaluate influenza A viruses that are not circulating in the human population but pose a pandemic risk. The objective is to offer a standardized set of considerations to be applied when evaluating prepandemic viruses. The tool under consideration is a simple, additive model, based on multiattribute decision analysis. The model includes elements that address the properties of the virus itself and population attributes, considers both veterinary and human findings, and integrates both laboratory and field observations. Additionally, each element is assigned a weight such that all elements are not considered of equal importance within the model.
流感大流行对人类和动物健康构成持续风险，并可能在全球引发粮食安全问题。随着人类新型甲型流感病毒感染病例的发现，大流行防范策略必然涉及关于哪些病毒应纳入进一步研究和缓解措施的决策。资源和时间限制决定，应选择那些对公众或动物健康构成最大风险的病毒进行进一步研究，以填补信息空白，并有可能开发可存入文库、生产和储存，甚至用于保护易感动物或人群的候选疫苗。需要对评估流感病毒的过程应用基于科学的客观风险评估。在过去一年中，疾病控制和预防中心开始开发一种工具，用于评估未在人群中传播但具有大流行风险的甲型流感病毒。其目标是提供一套标准化的考量因素，用于评估大流行前病毒。正在考虑的工具是一个基于多属性决策分析的简单加法模型。该模型包括涉及病毒本身特性和人群属性的要素，兼顾兽医和人类研究结果，并整合实验室和实地观察结果。此外，每个要素都被赋予一个权重，以便在模型中并非所有要素都被视为同等重要。
