Industrial Ecology Programme, Department for Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway.
Environ Sci Technol. 2013 Apr 2;47(7):3448-54. doi: 10.1021/es303149z. Epub 2013 Mar 7.
Steel production accounts for 25% of industrial carbon emissions. Long-term forecasts of steel demand and scrap supply are needed to develop strategies for how the steel industry could respond to industrialization and urbanization in the developing world while simultaneously reducing its environmental impact, and in particular, its carbon footprint. We developed a dynamic stock model to estimate future final demand for steel and the available scrap for 10 world regions. Based on evidence from developed countries, we assumed that per capita in-use stocks will saturate eventually. We determined the response of the entire steel cycle to stock saturation, in particular the future split between primary and secondary steel production. During the 21st century, steel demand may peak in the developed world, China, the Middle East, Latin America, and India. As China completes its industrialization, global primary steel production may peak between 2020 and 2030 and decline thereafter. We developed a capacity model to show how extensive trade of finished steel could prolong the lifetime of the Chinese steelmaking assets. Secondary steel production will more than double by 2050, and it may surpass primary production between 2050 and 2060: the late 21st century can become the steel scrap age.
钢铁生产占工业碳排放的 25%。为了制定钢铁行业的战略，需要对钢铁需求和废钢供应进行长期预测，以应对发展中国家的工业化和城市化，同时减少其环境影响，特别是减少其碳足迹。我们开发了一个动态库存模型来估计未来 10 个世界区域的钢铁最终需求和可用废钢量。根据发达国家的证据，我们假设人均在用库存最终将达到饱和。我们确定了整个钢铁周期对库存饱和的反应，特别是初级和次级钢铁生产之间的未来分配。在 21 世纪，钢铁需求可能在发达国家、中国、中东、拉丁美洲和印度达到峰值。随着中国完成工业化，全球初级钢铁产量可能在 2020 年至 2030 年间达到峰值，此后将下降。我们开发了一个产能模型来展示成品钢的广泛贸易如何延长中国炼钢资产的使用寿命。到 2050 年，次级钢铁产量将增加一倍以上，并且可能在 2050 年至 2060 年间超过初级产量：21 世纪后期可能成为废钢时代。
