Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2013;8(2):e57638. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0057638. Epub 2013 Feb 22.
A total of 290 tree-ring samples, collected from six sites in the West Qinling Mountains of China, were used to develop six new standard tree-ring chronologies. In addition, 73 proxy records were assembled in collaboration with Chinese and international scholars, from 27 publically available proxy records and 40 tree-ring chronologies that are not available in public datasets. These records were used to reconstruct annual mean temperature variability in the West Qinling Mountains over the past 500 years (AD 1500-1995), using a modified point-by-point regression (hybrid PPR) method. The results demonstrate that the hybrid PPR method successfully integrates the temperature signals from different types of proxies, and that the method preserves a high degree of low-frequency variability. The reconstruction shows greater temperature variability in the West Qinling Mountains than has been found in previous studies. Our temperature reconstruction for this region shows: 1) five distinct cold periods, at approximately AD 1520-1535, AD 1560-1575, AD 1610-1620, AD 1850-1875 and AD 1965-1985, and four warm periods, at approximately AD 1645-1660, AD 1705-1725, AD 1785-1795 and AD 1920-1945; 2) that in this region, the 20(th) century was not the warmest period of the past 500 years; and 3) that a dominant and persistent oscillation of ca. 64 years is significantly identified in the 1640-1790 period.
共采集了中国西秦岭地区 6 个地点的 290 个树木年轮样本,建立了 6 个新的标准树木年轮年表。此外,与中国和国际学者合作,共收集了 73 个代理记录,其中包括 27 个公开可用的代理记录和 40 个未在公共数据集中公布的树木年轮年表。利用改进的逐点回归(混合 PPR)方法,利用这些记录重建了过去 500 年(公元 1500-1995 年)西秦岭地区的年平均温度变化。结果表明,混合 PPR 方法成功地整合了不同类型代理记录的温度信号,并且该方法保留了高度的低频变化。重建结果表明,西秦岭地区的温度变化比以往研究更为显著。我们对该地区的温度重建表明:1)存在 5 个明显的冷期,分别在公元 1520-1535 年、1560-1575 年、1610-1620 年、1850-1875 年和 1965-1985 年,以及 4 个暖期,分别在公元 1645-1660 年、1705-1725 年、1785-1795 年和 1920-1945 年;2)在该地区,20 世纪并不是过去 500 年中最温暖的时期;3)在 1640-1790 年期间,存在一个约 64 年的主导且持久的振荡。