Department of Environmental and Forest Biology, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA.
Conserv Biol. 2013 Jun;27(3):542-51. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12028. Epub 2013 Mar 4.
For decades conservation biologists have proposed general rules of thumb for minimum viable population size (MVP); typically, they range from hundreds to thousands of individuals. These rules have shifted conservation resources away from small and fragmented populations. We examined whether iteroparous, long-lived species might constitute an exception to general MVP guidelines. On the basis of results from a 10-year capture-recapture study in eastern New York (U.S.A.), we developed a comprehensive demographic model for the globally threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii), which is designated as endangered by the IUCN in 2011. We assessed population viability across a wide range of initial abundances and carrying capacities. Not accounting for inbreeding, our results suggest that bog turtle colonies with as few as 15 breeding females have >90% probability of persisting for >100 years, provided vital rates and environmental variance remain at currently estimated levels. On the basis of our results, we suggest that MVP thresholds may be 1-2 orders of magnitude too high for many long-lived organisms. Consequently, protection of small and fragmented populations may constitute a viable conservation option for such species, especially in a regional or metapopulation context.
几十年来，保护生物学家提出了最小可行种群大小（MVP）的一般经验法则；通常，它们的范围从几百到几千个个体。这些规则使保护资源从小型和碎片化的种群转移开来。我们研究了多产、长寿物种是否可能成为 MVP 一般准则的例外。基于在纽约州东部进行的为期 10 年的捕获-再捕获研究的结果，我们为全球受威胁的沼泽龟（Glyptemys muhlenbergii）制定了一个全面的人口统计模型，该模型于 2011 年被 IUCN 指定为濒危物种。我们评估了初始丰度和承载能力范围内的种群生存能力。不考虑近亲繁殖，我们的结果表明，只要关键比率和环境方差保持在目前估计的水平，拥有 15 只以上繁殖雌龟的沼泽龟群体在 100 年以上的时间里持续存在的可能性>90%。基于我们的结果，我们认为 MVP 阈值对于许多长寿生物来说可能高 1-2 个数量级。因此，保护小型和碎片化的种群可能是此类物种的一种可行的保护选择，尤其是在区域或复合种群的背景下。
