Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark, Bygningstorvet 116B, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark.
Accid Anal Prev. 2013 May;54:81-9. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.02.016. Epub 2013 Feb 18.
While the number of fatalities on Danish roads has decreased in the last 40 years, research has not investigated the contribution of legislation changes, enforcement measures, technological enhancements, infrastructural improvements and human factors to this reduction. In the context of a Danish car market with remarkably high registration tax that causes potential buyers to hold longer onto old cars, the relationship between technological enhancements of vehicles and severity of crashes requires particular attention. The current study investigated the relationship between car generation (i.e., car's first registration year) and injury severity sustained by car drivers involved in accidents in Denmark between 2004 and 2010. A generalized ordered logit model was estimated while controlling for several characteristics of the crash, the vehicle and the persons involved, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effect of car generation on drivers' injury severity. Results illustrate that newer car generations are associated to significantly lower probability of injury and fatality, and that replacing older cars with newer ones introduces significant and not to be overlooked benefits for both population and society.
尽管丹麦道路上的死亡人数在过去 40 年中有所下降，但研究尚未调查立法变化、执法措施、技术改进、基础设施改善和人为因素对这一下降的贡献。在丹麦汽车市场中，注册税非常高，这导致潜在买家持有旧车的时间更长，因此需要特别关注车辆技术改进与事故严重程度之间的关系。本研究调查了 2004 年至 2010 年期间丹麦发生的事故中汽车司机受伤严重程度与汽车世代（即汽车首次注册年份）之间的关系。在控制事故、车辆和相关人员的几个特征的情况下，估计了广义有序逻辑模型，并进行了敏感性分析以评估汽车世代对驾驶员受伤严重程度的影响。结果表明，较新的汽车世代与受伤和死亡的可能性显著降低相关，用较新的汽车取代较旧的汽车，无论是对个人还是对整个社会，都带来了显著的、不容忽视的好处。
