Centre for Accident Research Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Queensland University of Technology, Australia.
Accid Anal Prev. 2012 Sep;48:423-9. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.02.016. Epub 2012 Mar 27.
The growing proportion of older adults in Australia is predicted to comprise 23% of the population by 2030. Accordingly, an increasing number of older drivers and fatal crashes of these drivers could also be expected. While the cognitive and physiological limitations of ageing and their road safety implications have been widely documented, research has generally considered older drivers as a homogeneous group. Knowledge of age-related crash trends within the older driver group itself is currently limited.
The aim of this research was to identify age-related differences in serious road crashes of older drivers. This was achieved by comparing crash characteristics between older and younger drivers and between sub-groups of older drivers. Particular attention was paid to serious crashes (crashes resulting in hospitalisation and fatalities) as they place the greatest burden on the Australian health system.
Using Queensland Crash data, a total of 191,709 crashes of all-aged drivers (17-80+) over a 9-year period were analysed. Crash patterns of drivers' aged 17-24, 25-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ were compared in terms of crash severity (e.g., fatal), at fault levels, traffic control measures (e.g., stop signs) and road features (e.g., intersections). Crashes of older driver sub-groups (60-69, 70-79, 80+) were also compared to those of middle-aged drivers (40-49 and 50-59 combined, who were identified as the safest driving cohort) with respect to crash-related traffic control features and other factors (e.g., speed). Confounding factors including speed and crash nature (e.g., sideswipe) were controlled for.
Results indicated that patterns of serious crashes, as a function of crash severity, at-fault levels, road conditions and traffic control measures, differed significantly between age groups. As a group, older drivers (60+) represented the greatest proportion of crashes resulting in fatalities and hospitalisation, as well as those involving uncontrolled intersections and failure to give way. The opposite was found for middle-aged drivers, although they had the highest proportion of alcohol and speed-related crashes when compared to older drivers. Among all older drivers, those aged 60-69 were least likely to be involved in or the cause of crashes, but most likely to crash at interchanges and as a result of driving while fatigued or after consuming alcohol. Drivers aged 70-79 represented a mid-range level of crash involvement and culpability, and were most likely to crash at stop and give way signs. Drivers aged 80 years and beyond were most likely to be seriously injured or killed in, and at-fault for, crashes, and had the greatest number of crashes at both conventional and circular intersections. Overall, our findings highlight the heterogeneity of older drivers' crash patterns and suggest that age-related differences must be considered in measures designed to improve older driver safety.
据预测,到 2030 年,澳大利亚老年人的比例将占总人口的 23%。相应地,老年司机的数量以及这些司机发生致命事故的数量也可能会增加。尽管年龄增长带来的认知和生理限制及其对道路安全的影响已被广泛记录,但研究通常将老年司机视为一个同质群体。目前,对于老年司机群体内部与年龄相关的事故趋势知之甚少。
本研究旨在确定老年司机严重道路事故中的年龄相关差异。这是通过比较老年司机和年轻司机之间以及老年司机亚组之间的事故特征来实现的。特别关注严重事故(导致住院和死亡的事故),因为它们对澳大利亚的医疗系统造成了最大的负担。
使用昆士兰州的碰撞数据,分析了 9 年内所有年龄段司机(17-80+)的 191709 起碰撞事故。比较了 17-24 岁、25-39 岁、40-49 岁、50-59 岁、60-69 岁、70-79 岁和 80 岁以上司机的碰撞模式,包括碰撞严重程度(例如致命)、责任水平、交通管制措施(例如停车标志)和道路特征(例如交叉路口)。还比较了 60-69 岁、70-79 岁和 80 岁以上老年司机亚组与中年司机(40-49 岁和 50-59 岁合并,被确定为最安全的驾驶群体)之间与碰撞相关的交通管制特征和其他因素(例如速度)。控制了包括速度和碰撞性质(例如侧面碰撞)在内的混杂因素。
结果表明,严重事故的模式,包括碰撞严重程度、责任水平、道路状况和交通管制措施,在不同年龄段之间存在显著差异。作为一个群体,老年司机(60 岁以上)在导致死亡和住院的事故以及涉及无控制交叉口和未让路的事故中所占比例最大。而中年司机则相反,尽管与老年司机相比,他们的酒精和速度相关事故比例最高。在所有老年司机中,60-69 岁的司机最不可能参与或成为事故的原因,但最有可能在交汇处发生事故,并且最有可能因疲劳驾驶或酒后驾驶而发生事故。70-79 岁的司机处于中等水平,最有可能发生事故和承担责任,并且最有可能在停车标志和让路标志处发生事故。80 岁及以上的司机最有可能在事故中严重受伤或死亡,并对事故负有责任,并且在传统和环形交叉口发生的事故最多。总体而言,我们的研究结果突出了老年司机碰撞模式的异质性,并表明在设计旨在提高老年司机安全性的措施时,必须考虑与年龄相关的差异。