Laflamme L, Vaez M
Karolinska Institutet, Department of Public Health Sciences, Division of International Health, SE-171 77 Stockholm, Sweden.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2007 Mar;14(1):5-10. doi: 10.1080/17457300601119031.
The objective of the study was to assess the independent contribution of individual, car and circumstantial features in severe and fatal car crashes involving young drivers. A prospective longitudinal, register-based cohort study was conducted at national level (in Sweden), in which people born in the years 1970-1972 (n = 334070) were followed up for the period 1988-2000 (aged 16-18 years in 1988) for their first two-car crashes leading to severe or fatal injury. Ten variables descriptive of the driver (sociodemographics), the car (safety level) and the crash have been analysed using multiple logistic regressions for male and female drivers separately, compiling crude and adjusted odds ratios with 95% CI. When controlling for other features, none of the variables descriptive of male and female drivers' socio-demographic characteristics impacts significantly on the odds of being severely injured or dying in a car-to-car crash. After adjustment, significant excess risks are observed for speed limits higher than the lowest one, type of crash other than rear end collision and road and light conditions other than favourable (dry and daylight), for both male and female drivers. For males only, cars from all car safety levels have significantly higher odds than those from the safest category. Among male and female young drivers, class differences in the risk of being severely injured in a traffic injury are substantial. Yet, despite this imbalance, crash characteristics (for males and females) and safety level of the vehicle driven (for males) remain the most determinant factors of crash severity. Understanding the social patterning of road traffic injuries is a challenge for public health and it seems that qualitative and quantitative differences in crash exposure offer part of the explanation. Young drivers from all social groups need, however, to be sensitized to the risk factors.
该研究的目的是评估在涉及年轻驾驶员的严重及致命车祸中,个人、车辆和环境因素的独立作用。在国家层面(瑞典)开展了一项基于登记的前瞻性纵向队列研究,对1970 - 1972年出生的人群(n = 334070)进行随访,时间跨度为1988 - 2000年(1988年时年龄为16 - 18岁),追踪他们首次发生的导致严重或致命伤害的两车相撞事故。分别对描述驾驶员(社会人口统计学特征)、车辆(安全水平)和车祸的10个变量进行了分析,针对男性和女性驾驶员分别使用多元逻辑回归,计算粗比值比和调整后的比值比以及95%置信区间。在控制其他因素后,描述男性和女性驾驶员社会人口学特征的变量,均未对两车相撞时受重伤或死亡的几率产生显著影响。调整后发现,对于男性和女性驾驶员而言,速度限制高于最低限速、非追尾碰撞类型以及不利的道路和光照条件(非干燥和白天)均存在显著的额外风险。仅对于男性而言,所有安全水平车辆的驾驶员相比最安全类别车辆的驾驶员,发生严重事故的几率显著更高。在年轻男性和女性驾驶员中,交通伤中受重伤风险的阶层差异很大。然而,尽管存在这种不均衡,车祸特征(无论男性还是女性)以及男性所驾驶车辆的安全水平仍是车祸严重程度的最主要决定因素。理解道路交通伤害的社会模式是公共卫生面临的一项挑战,车祸暴露的定性和定量差异似乎提供了部分解释。然而,所有社会群体的年轻驾驶员都需要提高对风险因素的认识。