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自由泳运动成绩的发展与预测。

The development and prediction of athletic performance in freestyle swimming.

机构信息

The Jerzy Kukuczka Academy of Pchysical Education, Katowice, Poland.

出版信息

J Hum Kinet. 2012 May;32:97-107. doi: 10.2478/v10078-012-0027-3. Epub 2012 May 30.

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamics of changes between the performances of elite freestyle swimmers recorded at particular Olympic Games. It also uses a set of chronologically ordered results to predict probable times of swimmers at the 2012 Olympic Games in London. The analysis of past performances of freestyle swimmers and their prediction have revealed a number of interesting tendencies within separately examined results of men and women. Women's results improve more dynamically compared with men's. Moreover, the difference between women's and men's results is smaller, the longer the swimming distance. As both male and female athletes tend to compete more and more vigorously within their groups, the gap between the gold medallist and the last finisher in the final is constantly decreasing, which provides significant evidence that this sport discipline continues to develop.

摘要

本文分析了特定奥运会上精英自由泳运动员表现之间变化的动态。它还使用了一组按时间顺序排列的结果来预测 2012 年伦敦奥运会游泳运动员的可能成绩。对自由泳运动员过去表现的分析及其预测揭示了分别检查的男子和女子结果中的一些有趣趋势。与男子相比,女子的成绩提高得更具动态性。此外,游泳距离越长,男女成绩之间的差距就越小。由于男性和女性运动员在各自的组别中越来越激烈地竞争,金牌得主和决赛最后一名之间的差距不断缩小,这有力地证明了这项运动在不断发展。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/458d/3590874/01f962352420/jhk-32-97f1.jpg

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