Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main, 60325, Germany.
Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Mar;19(3):752-62. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12107. Epub 2013 Jan 7.
Climate change is predicted to have profound effects on freshwater organisms due to rising temperatures and altered precipitation regimes. Using an ensemble of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs), we modelled the climatic suitability of 191 stream macroinvertebrate species from 12 orders across Europe under two climate change scenarios for 2080 on a spatial resolution of 5 arc minutes. Analyses included assessments of relative changes in species' climatically suitable areas as well as their potential shifts in latitude and longitude with respect to species' thermal preferences. Climate-change effects were also analysed regarding species' ecological and biological groupings, namely (1) endemicity and (2) rarity within European ecoregions, (3) life cycle, (4) stream zonation preference and (5) current preference. The BEMs projected that suitable climate conditions would persist in Europe in the year 2080 for nearly 99% of the modelled species regardless of the climate scenario. Nevertheless, a decrease in the amount of climatically suitable areas was projected for 57-59% of the species. Depending on the scenario, losses could be of 38-44% on average. The suitable areas for species were projected to shift, on average, 4.7-6.6° north and 3.9-5.4° east. Cold-adapted species were projected to lose climatically suitable areas, while gains were expected for warm-adapted species. When projections were analysed for different species groupings, only endemics stood out as a particular group. That is, endemics were projected to lose significantly larger amounts of suitable climatic areas than nonendemic species. Despite the uncertainties involved in modelling exercises such as this, the extent of projected distributional changes reveals further the vulnerability of freshwater organisms to climate change and implies a need to understand the consequences for ecological function and biodiversity conservation.
气候变化预计将对淡水生物产生深远影响，因为气温上升和降水模式的改变。我们使用生物气候包络模型（BEM）的集合，模拟了欧洲 12 个目 191 种溪流大型无脊椎动物物种在两种气候变化情景下 2080 年的气候适宜性，空间分辨率为 5 弧分。分析包括评估物种气候适宜区的相对变化，以及它们相对于物种热偏好的潜在纬度和经度变化。还分析了气候变化对物种生态和生物学分组的影响，即（1）特有性和（2）欧洲生态区的稀有性，（3）生命周期，（4）溪流分带偏好和（5）当前偏好。BEM 预测，无论气候情景如何，2080 年欧洲近 99%的模拟物种仍将保持适宜的气候条件。然而，预计 57-59%的物种的气候适宜区面积将会减少。根据情景，平均损失可能为 38-44%。预计物种的适宜区将平均向北和向东移动 4.7-6.6°和 3.9-5.4°。预计冷适应物种的气候适宜区将减少，而暖适应物种的气候适宜区将增加。当对不同物种分组进行预测分析时，只有特有种是一个特殊的分组。也就是说，预计特有种将失去比非特有种更多的适宜气候区。尽管此类建模练习存在不确定性，但预测的分布变化程度进一步揭示了淡水生物对气候变化的脆弱性，并意味着需要了解对生态功能和生物多样性保护的后果。
