Department of Public Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, England, UK.
Acad Med. 2013 May;88(5):699-709. doi: 10.1097/ACM.0b013e31828b364f.
To determine--as a guide to assess outcomes of medical education, and for medical workforce planning--whether the great majority of graduates from UK medical schools eventually practice medicine.
The authors estimated the level of participation in medicine, in selected years after graduation, of nine cohorts (graduating between 1974 and 2002, inclusive) of graduates from medical schools in the United Kingdom. Their estimation is based on survey-garnered data combined with national employment data, and it uses the statistical method of capture-recapture analysis. This method provides both a lower likely limit and an upper likely limit of the percentage of doctors practicing in medicine. The lower and upper limits depend, essentially, on a range of assumptions about nonresponders.
The authors estimate that at least 90% of graduates from UK medical schools work in medicine for many years after graduation. Women are only slightly less likely than men to follow a medical career. To illustrate, of the doctors who lived in the United Kingdom before medical school, at 10 years after graduation, between 95.6% and 98.8% of men were in medicine, as were between 91.9% and 93.3% of women. UK medical graduates from homes outside the United Kingdom were less likely to work in the National Health Service and more likely to pursue a career outside the United Kingdom, but were not appreciably less likely than graduates from UK homes to work in medicine.
UK-trained doctors rarely give up a medical career within 25 years of graduation.
评估医学教育的成果，并为医疗劳动力规划提供指导，以确定英国医学院校的绝大多数毕业生最终是否从事医学工作。
作者通过调查数据与国家就业数据相结合，并运用捕获再捕获分析这一统计方法，估计了 1974 年至 2002 年（含）期间毕业的 9 个队列（共 9 个批次）的英国医学院校毕业生在毕业后特定年份从事医学工作的参与度。该方法为医生从事医学工作的比例提供了下限和上限的可能范围。下限和上限主要取决于对无应答者的一系列假设。
作者估计，英国医学院校的毕业生在毕业后的许多年里，至少有 90%从事医学工作。女性从事医学职业的可能性略低于男性。例如，在医学院毕业前居住在英国的医生中，有 95.6%至 98.8%的男性和 91.9%至 93.3%的女性从事医学工作。来自英国以外国家的英国医学院毕业生从事国民保健服务的可能性较小，更有可能在英国以外从事职业，但从事医学工作的可能性与英国本土毕业生相比并无明显降低。
英国培训的医生在毕业 25 年内很少放弃医学职业。
