Langford J L, Thomson P C, Knight P K
Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Aust Vet J. 2013 May;91(5):198-203. doi: 10.1111/avj.12049.
To profile Thoroughbreds that incurred a ban under Australian Rule of Racing 53A on New South Wales racetracks between August 1999 and July 2008, determine the effect on their careers and identify the factors that predict whether these horses would race again or experience a recurrence of epistaxis.
Differences between horses that did or did not return to racing and did or did not suffer recurrent epistaxis were determined. Backwards stepwise logistic regression was used to identify variables predicting a return to racing and recurrence of epistaxis.
The mean (± SD) age at the first episode of epistaxis was 4.90 ± 1.28 years. Males that bled were older, had more career starts and were more likely to race again than females. Horses that were retired from racing after the first episode of epistaxis were older than horses that continued to race. Variables that were significant predictors of retirement were: age at the first episode of epistaxis, sex, percentage of winning starts before the first episode of epistaxis, percentage of placed starts before the first episode of epistaxis and number of starts in the preparation before the first episode of epistaxis. The significant predictors of recurrence of epistaxis were: change in distance between previous start and start at which the second episode occurred and a change in percentage of winning starts, although the odds ratios were low (0.98-0.99).
Females experience epistaxis at a younger age than males. No readily applicable predictors of the recurrence of epistaxis were identified.
对1999年8月至2008年7月期间在新南威尔士州赛马场因澳大利亚赛马规则53A而被禁赛的纯种马进行剖析，确定禁赛对其职业生涯的影响，并找出预测这些马匹是否会再次参赛或鼻出血复发的因素。
确定了复赛后和未复赛后以及鼻出血复发和未复发的马匹之间的差异。采用向后逐步逻辑回归来确定预测复赛和鼻出血复发的变量。
鼻出血首次发作时的平均（±标准差）年龄为4.90±1.28岁。鼻出血的雄性马匹年龄更大，参赛次数更多，比雌性马匹更有可能再次参赛。鼻出血首次发作后退役的马匹比继续参赛的马匹年龄更大。预测退役的显著变量为：鼻出血首次发作时的年龄、性别、鼻出血首次发作前获胜场次的百分比、鼻出血首次发作前获得名次场次的百分比以及鼻出血首次发作前备战中的参赛次数。鼻出血复发的显著预测因素为：上一场比赛与鼻出血第二次发作时比赛的距离变化以及获胜场次百分比的变化，尽管优势比很低（0.98 - 0.99）。
雌性马匹鼻出血的年龄比雄性马匹小。未发现可轻易应用于预测鼻出血复发的因素。
