Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ 08541, USA.
Psychol Sci. 2013 Jul 1;24(7):1151-6. doi: 10.1177/0956797612468452. Epub 2013 Apr 29.
Although "hot hands" in basketball are illusory, the belief in them is so robust that it not only has sparked many debates but may also affect the behavior of players and coaches. On the basis of an entire National Basketball Association season's worth of data, the research reported here shows that even a single successful shot suffices to increase a player's likelihood of taking the next team shot, increase the average distance from which this next shot is taken, decrease the probability that this next shot is successful, and decrease the probability that the coach will replace the player.
尽管篮球比赛中的“手感火热”是虚幻的，但人们对其深信不疑，这不仅引发了诸多争论，甚至可能影响到球员和教练的行为。基于整个美国职业篮球联赛（NBA）赛季的数据，本文的研究表明，即使球员投中一个球，也足以增加他下一次投篮的可能性，增加下一次投篮的平均距离，降低下一次投篮成功的概率，降低教练替换该球员的概率。
