Wallace Jarryd Luke, Norton Kevin Ian
School of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Australia.
School of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Australia.
J Sci Med Sport. 2014 Mar;17(2):223-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jsams.2013.03.016. Epub 2013 May 2.
There are relatively few performance analysis studies on field sports investigating how they evolve from a structural or tactical viewpoint. Field sports like soccer involve complex, non-linear dynamical systems yet consistent patterns of play are recognisable over time and among different sports. This study on soccer trends helps build a framework of potential causative mechanisms for these patterns.
Retrospective correlational study.
Broadcast footage of World Cup finals between 1966 and 2010 was used to assess patterns of play and stop periods, type and duration of game stoppages, ball speed, player density (congestion) and passing rates. This involved computer-based ball tracking and other notational analyses. These results were analysed using linear regression to track changes across time.
Almost every variable assessed changed significantly over time. Play duration decreased while stoppage duration increased, both affecting the work: recovery ratios. Ball (game) speed increased by 15% over the 44-year period. Play structure changed towards a higher player density with a 35% greater passing rate.
Increases in soccer ball speed and player density show similarities with other field sports and suggest common evolutionary pressures may be driving play structures. The increased intensity of play is paralleled by longer stoppage breaks which allow greater player recovery and subsequently more intense play. Defensive strategies dominate over time as demonstrated by increased player density and congestion. The long-term pattern formations demonstrate successful coordinated states within team structures are predictable and may have universal causative mechanisms.
关于田径运动从结构或战术角度如何演变的性能分析研究相对较少。像足球这样的田径运动涉及复杂的非线性动力系统，但随着时间的推移以及在不同运动项目中，仍可识别出一致的比赛模式。这项关于足球趋势的研究有助于构建这些模式潜在因果机制的框架。
回顾性相关性研究。
使用1966年至2010年世界杯决赛的转播镜头来评估比赛模式和停顿时间、比赛中断的类型和持续时间、球速、球员密度（拥堵程度）和传球率。这涉及基于计算机的球跟踪和其他记录分析。使用线性回归分析这些结果以跟踪随时间的变化。
几乎每个评估变量都随时间发生了显著变化。比赛时长减少而停顿时长增加，两者都影响工作与恢复比率。在44年期间，球（比赛）速提高了15%。比赛结构朝着更高的球员密度转变，传球率提高了35%。
足球球速和球员密度的增加与其他田径运动相似，表明共同的进化压力可能在推动比赛结构的发展。比赛强度的增加伴随着更长的停顿休息时间，这使得球员有更多的恢复时间，进而比赛更加激烈。随着时间的推移，防守策略占主导地位，这从球员密度和拥堵程度的增加可以看出。长期的模式形成表明团队结构内成功的协调状态是可预测的，并且可能有普遍的因果机制。
