Maneiro Rubén, Amatria Mario, Losada José L, Jonsson Gudberg K, Ardá Antonio, Iván-Baragaño Iyán
Faculty of Science Education and Sport, University of Vigo, Vigo, Spain.
Faculty of Science Education, Pontifical University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain.
Front Psychol. 2025 Jun 13;16:1527437. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1527437. eCollection 2025.
This study represents one of the first attempts to apply association rule mining to the analysis of ball possession in professional men's football. The goal was to uncover hidden patterns among key tactical variables influencing possession success.
Using observational methodology, 2,324 ball possessions from the UEFA Euro 2020 championship were analyzed. The Apriori algorithm was applied to generate a total of 4,818 association rules, focusing on variables such as possession time, tactical intent, and field zones where possession occurred.
The results show that short possessions, with the intent to progress and developed in advanced zones of the field, are strongly associated with successful outcomes. This is reflected in high lift values (up to 40) and strong confidence levels. In contrast, long possessions in offensive zones did not consistently correlate with success.
These findings suggest that possession duration alone is not a reliable predictor of success. Instead, the combination of short possessions, in advanced zones, and with progressive intent, is more closely associated with positive outcomes. Association rule mining emerges as a valid and interpretable tool to support decision-making in elite football.
本研究是将关联规则挖掘应用于职业男子足球控球分析的首批尝试之一。目标是揭示影响控球成功的关键战术变量之间隐藏的模式。
采用观察法，对2020年欧洲足球锦标赛的2324次控球进行了分析。应用Apriori算法共生成4818条关联规则，重点关注控球时间、战术意图以及控球发生的场地区域等变量。
结果表明，在场地前场区域进行的、意图推进的短时间控球与成功结果密切相关。这体现在高提升值（高达40）和高置信度上。相比之下，进攻区域的长时间控球与成功并非始终相关。
这些发现表明，仅控球持续时间并非成功的可靠预测指标。相反，前场区域的、意图推进的短时间控球组合与积极结果的关联更为紧密。关联规则挖掘成为支持精英足球决策的有效且可解释的工具。
