Teigen Halvor Karl, Juanchich Marie, Filkuková Petra
a Department of Psychology , University of Oslo , Oslo , Norway.
Q J Exp Psychol (Hove). 2014;67(1):124-46. doi: 10.1080/17470218.2013.793731. Epub 2013 May 28.
Previous studies of verbal probabilities have tried to place expressions like a chance, possible, and certain on 0-1 numerical probability scales. We ask instead, out of a range of outcomes, which outcome a verbal probability suggests. When, for instance, a sample of laptop batteries lasts from 1.5 to 3.5 hours, what is a certain and what is a possible duration? Experiment 1 showed that speakers associate certain with low values and possible with (unlikely) high or maximal values. In Experiment 2, this methodology was applied to several positive and negative verbal probability phrases, showing a preference for high rather than low or middle values in a distribution. Experiment 3 showed that such maxima are not universally described by large numbers. For instance, maximum speed is often described in terms of a small number of time units. What can (possibly) happen is accordingly sometimes described with very low and sometimes with very high values, depending upon focus of interest. Finally, participants in Experiment 4 were given the role of hearers rather than speakers and were asked to infer outcome ranges from verbal probabilities. Hearers appeared to be partly aware of speakers' tendencies to describe outcomes at the top of the range.
以往关于言语概率的研究试图将诸如“机会”“可能”“确定”等表述置于0到1的数字概率量表上。相反，我们要问的是，在一系列结果中，言语概率暗示的是哪种结果。例如，当一批笔记本电脑电池的续航时间在1.5小时到3.5小时之间时，确定的续航时间是多少，可能的续航时间又是多少？实验1表明，说话者将“确定”与低值联系起来，将“可能”与（不太可能的）高值或最大值联系起来。在实验2中，这种方法被应用于几个肯定和否定的言语概率短语，结果表明在分布中更倾向于高值而非低值或中间值。实验3表明，此类最大值并非普遍用大数字来描述。例如，最高速度通常用少量的时间单位来描述。因此，根据兴趣焦点，“可能发生的事情”有时用非常低的值来描述，有时用非常高的值来描述。最后，实验4中的参与者扮演的是听者而非说话者的角色，他们被要求从言语概率中推断结果范围。听者似乎部分意识到了说话者倾向于描述范围顶端的结果。
