Hernández Jaime, Núñez Ignacia, Bacigalupo Antonella, Cattan Pedro E
Int J Health Geogr. 2013 May 31;12:29. doi: 10.1186/1476-072X-12-29.
Chagas disease is caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, which is transmitted to mammal hosts by triatomine insect vectors. The goal of this study was to model the spatial distribution of triatomine species in an endemic area.
Vector's locations were obtained with a rural householders' survey. This information was combined with environmental data obtained from remote sensors, land use maps and topographic SRTM data, using the machine learning algorithm Random Forests to model species distribution. We analysed the combination of variables on three scales: 10 km, 5 km and 2.5 km cell size grids.
The best estimation, explaining 46.2% of the triatomines spatial distribution, was obtained for 5 km of spatial resolution. Presence probability distribution increases from central Chile towards the north, tending to cover the central-coastal region and avoiding areas of the Andes range.
The methodology presented here was useful to model the distribution of triatomines in an endemic area; it is best explained using 5 km of spatial resolution, and their presence increases in the northern part of the study area. This study's methodology can be replicated in other countries with Chagas disease or other vectorial transmitted diseases, and be used to locate high risk areas and to optimize resource allocation, for prevention and control of vectorial diseases.
恰加斯病由原生动物克氏锥虫引起，通过锥蝽昆虫媒介传播给哺乳动物宿主。本研究的目的是模拟流行地区锥蝽物种的空间分布。
通过对农村住户进行调查获取媒介的位置信息。利用机器学习算法随机森林，将这些信息与从遥感传感器、土地利用图和地形SRTM数据中获取的环境数据相结合，以模拟物种分布。我们在三个尺度上分析了变量组合：10公里、5公里和2.5公里网格单元大小。
对于5公里的空间分辨率，得到了最佳估计，解释了锥蝽空间分布的46.2%。存在概率分布从智利中部向北增加，倾向于覆盖中部沿海地区，并避开安第斯山脉地区。
本文介绍的方法对于模拟流行地区锥蝽的分布很有用；使用5公里的空间分辨率能得到最佳解释，并且它们在研究区域北部的存在有所增加。本研究的方法可以在其他有恰加斯病或其他媒介传播疾病的国家进行复制，并用于确定高风险区域和优化资源分配，以预防和控制媒介传播疾病。
