Bacaër Nicolas, Ed-Darraz Abdelkarim
IRD and University Paris 6, UMI209-UMMISCO, Bondy, France,
J Math Biol. 2014 Jul;69(1):73-90. doi: 10.1007/s00285-013-0696-0. Epub 2013 Jun 1.
We study the probability of extinction for single-type and multi-type continuous-time linear birth-and-death processes in a finite Markovian environment. The probability of extinction is equal to 1 almost surely if and only if the basic reproduction number R(0) is ≤ 1, the key point being to identify a suitable definition of R(0) for such a result to hold.
我们研究了在有限马尔可夫环境中单类型和多类型连续时间线性生死过程的灭绝概率。当且仅当基本再生数(R(0)\leq1)时，灭绝概率几乎必然等于(1)，关键在于为使该结果成立确定(R(0))的合适定义。
