Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30309, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Jul 9;110(28):11267-71. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1220568110. Epub 2013 Jun 24.
Unprecedented levels of US subprime mortgage defaults precipitated a severe global financial crisis in late 2008, plunging much of the industrialized world into a deep recession. However, the fundamental reasons for why US mortgages defaulted at such spectacular rates remain largely unknown. This paper presents empirical evidence showing that the ability to perform basic mathematical calculations is negatively associated with the propensity to default on one's mortgage. We measure several aspects of financial literacy and cognitive ability in a survey of subprime mortgage borrowers who took out loans in 2006 and 2007, and match them to objective, detailed administrative data on mortgage characteristics and payment histories. The relationship between numerical ability and mortgage default is robust to controlling for a broad set of sociodemographic variables, and is not driven by other aspects of cognitive ability. We find no support for the hypothesis that numerical ability impacts mortgage outcomes through the choice of the mortgage contract. Rather, our results suggest that individuals with limited numerical ability default on their mortgage due to behavior unrelated to the initial choice of their mortgage.
2008 年末，美国次贷违约达到前所未有的水平，引发了严重的全球金融危机，使大多数工业化国家陷入深度衰退。然而，美国抵押贷款违约率如此之高的根本原因在很大程度上仍不清楚。本文提供了实证证据，表明进行基本数学计算的能力与抵押贷款违约倾向呈负相关。我们在对 2006 年和 2007 年贷款的次贷借款人的调查中衡量了几个方面的金融知识和认知能力，并将其与抵押贷款特征和还款记录的客观、详细的行政数据相匹配。在控制了广泛的社会人口变量后，数值能力与抵押贷款违约之间的关系仍然很稳健，并且不受认知能力其他方面的影响。我们没有发现数值能力通过抵押贷款合同的选择影响抵押贷款结果的假设成立。相反，我们的结果表明，数值能力有限的个人因与初始抵押贷款选择无关的行为而违约。
