Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2013 Aug;16(8):1095-103. doi: 10.1111/ele.12144. Epub 2013 Jun 26.
A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time-calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10,000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.
物种能多快适应不同的气候条件？在这里，我们采用系统发育的方法来研究这个问题。我们使用了 17 个已校准时间的系统发育树，代表了主要的四足类群（两栖动物、鸟类、鳄鱼、哺乳动物、蜥蜴、海龟），以及来自 500 多种现存物种分布的气候数据。我们根据姐妹物种之间的气候变量差异以及它们分裂的估计时间来估计变化率。我们将这些速率与 2000 年至 2100 年的气候变化预测进行比较。我们的结果令人震惊：要匹配 2100 年的预计变化，对于大多数变量和类群来说，所需的生态位进化速率比物种之间通常观察到的速率快 10000 多倍。尽管存在许多警告，但我们的结果表明，基于观察到的脊椎动物物种的速率，适应未来 100 年的预计变化所需的速率在很大程度上是前所未有的。
