巴西马拉尼昂州沿公路和铁路走廊的县中美洲皮肤利什曼病的时空分布分析。
An analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in counties located along road and railway corridors in the State of Maranhão, Brazil.
机构信息
Coordenação de VISA de Portos, Aeroportos e Fronteiras, Agência Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária, São Luis, MA, Brazil.
出版信息
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2013 May-Jun;46(3):322-8. doi: 10.1590/0037-8682-0056-2012.
INTRODUCTION
The incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is increasing in Latin America, especially in Brazil, where 256,587 cases were confirmed in the last decade.
METHODS
This study used a Bayesian model to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of ACL cases between 2000 and 2009 in 61 counties of State of Maranhão located along the three main road and railway corridors.
RESULTS
During the study period, 13,818 cases of ACL were recorded. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of ACL in the ten study years. The recorded incidence rate ranged from 7.36 to 241.45 per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risk increased in 77% of the counties, decreased in 18% and was maintained in only five counties.
CONCLUSIONS
Although there was a decreased incidence of the disease, ACL was present in all of the examined municipalities, thus maintaining the risk of contracting this illness.
简介
美国皮肤利什曼病（ACL）的发病率在拉丁美洲不断上升，尤其是在巴西，在过去十年中已确诊 256,587 例。
方法
本研究采用贝叶斯模型，分析了 2000 年至 2009 年期间，位于三条主要公路和铁路沿线的马拉尼昂州 61 个县的 ACL 病例的时空分布。
结果
在研究期间，共记录到 13,818 例 ACL 病例。在十年的研究中，ACL 的发病率呈显著下降趋势。记录的发病率范围为每 100,000 居民 7.36 至 241.45 例。相对风险在 77%的县增加，在 18%的县减少，只有 5 个县保持不变。
结论
尽管疾病发病率有所下降，但 ACL 仍存在于所有检查的市/镇，因此仍存在感染该病的风险。
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