MacKillop James, Amlung Michael T, Blackburn Ashley, Murphy James G, Carrigan Maureen, Carpenter Matthew J, Chaloupka Frank
Department of Psychology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA Department of Behavioral and Social Sciences, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.
Department of Psychology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA.
Tob Control. 2014 Nov;23(6):501-6. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2012-050943. Epub 2013 Jul 18.
Cigarette price increases have been associated with increases in smoking cessation, but relatively little is known about this relationship at the level of individual smokers. To address this and to inform tax policy, the goal of this study was to apply a behavioural economic approach to the relationship between the price of cigarettes and the probability of attempting smoking cessation.
Adult daily smokers (n=1074; ie, 5+ cigarettes/day; 18+ years old; ≥8th grade education) completed in-person descriptive survey assessments. Assessments included estimated probability of making a smoking cessation attempt across a range of cigarette prices, demographics and nicotine dependence.
As price increases, probability of making a smoking cessation attempt exhibited an orderly increase, with the form of the relationship being similar to an inverted demand curve. The largest effect size increases in motivation to make a quit attempt were in the form of 'left-digit effects,' (ie, maximal sensitivity across pack price whole-number changes; eg, US$5.80-6/pack). Significant differences were also observed among the left-digit effects, suggesting the most substantial effects were for price changes that were most market relevant. Severity of nicotine dependence was significantly associated with price sensitivity, but not for all indices.
These data reveal the clear and robust relationship between the price of cigarettes and an individual's motivation to attempt smoking cessation. Furthermore, the current study indicates the importance of left-digit price transitions in this relationship, suggesting policymakers should consider relative price positions in the context of tax changes.
香烟价格上涨与戒烟率上升有关，但对于个体吸烟者层面的这种关系，人们了解得相对较少。为了解决这一问题并为税收政策提供依据，本研究的目的是运用行为经济学方法来研究香烟价格与尝试戒烟可能性之间的关系。
成年每日吸烟者（n = 1074；即每天吸5支及以上香烟；年龄18岁及以上；教育程度八年级及以上）完成了现场描述性调查评估。评估内容包括在一系列香烟价格、人口统计学特征和尼古丁依赖情况下尝试戒烟的估计概率。
随着价格上涨，尝试戒烟的概率呈有序增加，这种关系的形式类似于倒需求曲线。尝试戒烟动机增加的最大效应量是以“左数位效应”的形式出现（即对整包价格整数变化的最大敏感度；例如，每包5.80 - 6美元）。在左数位效应之间也观察到显著差异，这表明对与市场最相关的价格变化影响最为显著。尼古丁依赖的严重程度与价格敏感度显著相关，但并非对所有指标都如此。
这些数据揭示了香烟价格与个体尝试戒烟动机之间明确且稳健的关系。此外，当前研究表明左数位价格转变在这种关系中的重要性，这表明政策制定者在税收变化背景下应考虑相对价格位置。
