Department of Psychology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 306002, USA.
Addiction. 2012 Dec;107(12):2191-200. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2012.03991.x. Epub 2012 Jul 30.
Novel methods in behavioral economics permit the systematic assessment of the relationship between cigarette consumption and price. Towards informing tax policy, the goals of this study were to conduct a high-resolution analysis of cigarette demand in a large sample of adult smokers and to use the data to estimate the effects of tax increases in 10 US States.
In-person descriptive survey assessment.
Academic departments at three universities.
Adult daily smokers (i.e. more than five cigarettes/day; 18+ years old; ≥8th grade education); n = 1056.
Estimated cigarette demand, demographics, expired carbon monoxide.
The cigarette demand curve exhibited highly variable levels of price sensitivity, especially in the form of 'left-digit effects' (i.e. very high price sensitivity as pack prices transitioned from one whole number to the next; e.g. $5.80-6/pack). A $1 tax increase in the 10 states was projected to reduce the economic burden of smoking by an average of $530.6 million (range: $93.6-976.5 million) and increase gross tax revenue by an average of 162% (range: 114-247%).
Tobacco price sensitivity is non-linear across the demand curve and in particular for pack-level left-digit price transitions. Tax increases in US states with similar price and tax rates to the sample are projected to result in substantial decreases in smoking-related costs and substantial increases in tax revenues.
行为经济学中的新方法允许系统评估吸烟量与价格之间的关系。为了为税收政策提供信息，本研究的目的是对大量成年吸烟者的香烟需求进行高分辨率分析，并利用这些数据估计 10 个美国州的增税影响。
面对面描述性调查评估。
三所大学的学术部门。
成年每日吸烟者（即每天吸烟超过五支；18 岁以上；至少八年级教育）；n=1056。
估计的香烟需求、人口统计学、过期的一氧化碳。
香烟需求曲线表现出高度可变的价格敏感度水平，特别是以“左位数效应”的形式（即当包装价格从一个整数过渡到下一个整数时，价格敏感度非常高；例如，$5.80-6/包）。预计在这 10 个州每增加 1 美元的税收，将平均减少吸烟的经济负担 5.306 亿美元（范围：9360 万至 9.765 亿美元），并平均增加 162%的总税收（范围：1.14 亿至 2.47 亿美元）。
整条需求曲线以及特别是包装水平左位数价格变化的烟草价格敏感度是非线性的。与样本价格和税率相似的美国各州增加税收，预计将导致与吸烟相关的成本大幅下降，税收大幅增加。
