CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia.
Sci Rep. 2013;3:2245. doi: 10.1038/srep02245.
In the late twentieth century, the sub-thermocline waters of the southern tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean experienced a sharp cooling. This cooling has been previously attributed to an anthropogenic aerosol-induced strengthening of the global ocean conveyor, which transfers heat from the subtropical gyre latitudes toward the North Atlantic. From the mid-1990s the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean experienced a rapid temperature trend reversal. Here we show, using climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, that the late twentieth century sub-thermocline cooling of the southern Indian Ocean was primarily driven by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. The models simulate a slow-down in the sub-thermocline cooling followed by a rapid warming towards the mid twenty-first century. The simulated evolution of the Indian Ocean temperature trend is linked with the peak in aerosols and their subsequent decline in the twenty-first century, reinforcing the hypothesis that aerosols influence ocean circulation trends.
在二十世纪后期，南热带和亚热带印度洋的亚表层海水经历了急剧降温。这种降温以前归因于人为气溶胶引起的全球海洋输送带的加强，该输送带将热量从亚热带环流纬度带转移到北大西洋。自 20 世纪 90 年代中期以来，亚表层南印度洋的温度趋势迅速逆转。在这里，我们使用耦合模式比较计划第五阶段的气候模型表明，二十世纪后期南印度洋亚表层冷却主要是由不断增加的人为气溶胶和温室气体驱动的。这些模型模拟了亚表层冷却的减缓，随后在二十一世纪中期迅速变暖。印度洋温度趋势的模拟演变与气溶胶的峰值及其在二十一世纪的后续下降有关，这加强了气溶胶影响海洋环流趋势的假设。
