诺如病毒胃肠炎的免疫持续时间。
Duration of immunity to norovirus gastroenteritis.
机构信息
Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
出版信息
Emerg Infect Dis. 2013 Aug;19(8):1260-7. doi: 10.3201/eid1908.130472.
The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed to be from 6 months to 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates of the duration of immunity to NoV, we developed a mathematical model of community NoV transmission. The model was parameterized from the literature and also fit to age-specific incidence data from England and Wales by using maximum likelihood. We developed several scenarios to determine the effect of unknowns regarding transmission and immunity on estimates of the duration of immunity. In the various models, duration of immunity to NoV gastroenteritis was estimated at 4.1 (95% CI 3.2-5.1) to 8.7 (95% CI 6.8-11.3) years. Moreover, we calculated that children (<5 years) are much more infectious than older children and adults. If a vaccine can achieve protection for duration of natural immunity indicated by our results, its potential health and economic benefits could be substantial.
人们一直认为诺如病毒(NoV)胃肠炎的免疫持续时间为 6 个月至 2 年。然而,有几个观察结果与这个短期的持续时间并不一致。为了更好地估计诺如病毒的免疫持续时间,我们开发了一种社区诺如病毒传播的数学模型。该模型是根据文献参数化的,并且还通过最大似然法拟合了来自英格兰和威尔士的年龄特异性发病率数据。我们制定了几种方案来确定关于传播和免疫的未知因素对免疫持续时间估计的影响。在各种模型中,诺如病毒胃肠炎的免疫持续时间估计为 4.1(95%置信区间 3.2-5.1)至 8.7(95%置信区间 6.8-11.3)年。此外,我们计算得出,儿童(<5 岁)比年龄较大的儿童和成年人更具传染性。如果一种疫苗能够达到我们研究结果所表明的自然免疫持续时间的保护效果,那么它可能会带来巨大的健康和经济效益。
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