J Public Health Manag Pract. 2013 Sep-Oct;19 Suppl 2:S3-5. doi: 10.1097/PHH.0b013e318293f73e.
The ability of the scientific modeling community to meaningfully contribute to postevent response activities during public health emergencies was the direct result of a discrete set of preparedness activities as well as advances in theory and technology. Scientists and decision-makers have recognized the value of developing scientific tools (e.g. models, data sets, communities of practice) to prepare them to be able to respond quickly--in a manner similar to preparedness activities by first-responders and emergency managers. Computational models have matured in their ability to better inform response plans by modeling human behaviors and complex systems. We advocate for further development of science preparedness activities as deliberate actions taken in advance of an unpredicted event (or an event with unknown consequences) to increase the scientific tools and evidence-base available to decision makers and the whole-of-community to limit adverse outcomes.
科学建模界在公共卫生突发事件后的应对活动中提供有意义的帮助，这直接得益于一系列有针对性的准备活动，以及理论和技术的进步。科学家和决策者已经认识到开发科学工具（例如模型、数据集、实践社区）的价值，以便他们能够快速做出反应——类似于第一响应者和应急管理人员的准备活动。计算模型在通过模拟人类行为和复杂系统来更好地为响应计划提供信息方面已经成熟。我们提倡进一步开展科学准备活动，将其作为在不可预测事件（或后果未知的事件）发生之前采取的有意识的行动，以增加决策者和整个社区可用的科学工具和证据基础，从而限制不利后果。
