Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, China.
Math Biosci Eng. 2013 Aug;10(4):1159-71. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1159.
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the major public-health problems in China. Based on the HFMD data of the Department of Health of Shandong Province, we propose a dynamic model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal HFMD. After evaluating the basic reproduction number, we analyze the dynamical behaviors of the model and simulate the HFMD data of Shandong Province. By carrying out the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters, we conclude that the recessive subpopulation plays an important role in the spread of HFMD, and only quarantining the infected is not an effective measure in controlling the disease.
手足口病（HFMD）是中国主要的公共卫生问题之一。基于山东省卫生部门的 HFMD 数据，我们提出了一个具有周期性传播率的动态模型来研究季节性 HFMD。在评估了基本再生数后，我们分析了模型的动力学行为，并模拟了山东省的 HFMD 数据。通过对一些关键参数进行敏感性分析，我们得出结论，隐性亚群在手口足病的传播中起着重要作用，仅隔离感染者不是控制疾病的有效措施。
