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2010 - 2014年中国新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州季节性布鲁氏菌病疫情建模

Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010-2014.

作者信息

Lou Pengwei, Wang Lei, Zhang Xueliang, Xu Jiabo, Wang Kai

机构信息

College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China.

College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China.

出版信息

Biomed Res Int. 2016;2016:5103718. doi: 10.1155/2016/5103718. Epub 2016 Oct 30.

DOI:10.1155/2016/5103718
PMID:27872852
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5107254/
Abstract

Brucellosis is one of the severe public health problems; the cumulative number of new human brucellosis cases reached 211515 from 2010 to 2014 in China. Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture is situated in the southeast of Xinjiang, where brucellosis infection occurs every year. Based on the reported data of newly acute human brucellosis cases for each season in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, we proposed a susceptible, exposed, infected, and vaccinated (SEIV) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal brucellosis transmission dynamics among sheep/cattle and from sheep/cattle to humans. Compared with the criteria of MAPE and RMSPE, the model simulations agree to the data on newly acute human brucellosis. We predict that the number of newly acute human brucellosis is increasing and will peak 15325 [95% CI: 11920-18242] around the summer of 2023. We also estimate the basic reproduction number = 2.5524 [95% CI: 2.5129-2.6225] and perform some sensitivity analysis of the newly acute human brucellosis cases and the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters. Our study demonstrates that reducing the birth number of sheep/cattle, raising the slaughter rate of infected sheep/cattle, increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible sheep/cattle, and decreasing the loss rate of vaccination are effective strategies to control brucellosis epidemic.

摘要

布鲁氏菌病是严重的公共卫生问题之一；2010年至2014年中国新报告的人类布鲁氏菌病病例累计达211515例。巴音郭楞蒙古自治州位于新疆东南部，每年都有布鲁氏菌病感染发生。基于巴音郭楞蒙古自治州各季节新报告的急性人类布鲁氏菌病病例数据，我们提出了一个具有周期性传播率的易感、暴露、感染和接种疫苗（SEIV）模型，以研究绵羊/牛群中以及从绵羊/牛群到人类的季节性布鲁氏菌病传播动态。与平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）和均方根百分比误差（RMSPE）标准相比，模型模拟结果与新报告的急性人类布鲁氏菌病数据相符。我们预测，新报告的急性人类布鲁氏菌病病例数将增加，并将于2023年夏季左右达到峰值15325例[95%置信区间：11920 - 18242]。我们还估计了基本再生数(R_0) = 2.5524 [95%置信区间：2.5129 - 2.6225]，并对新报告的急性人类布鲁氏菌病病例数和基本再生数(R_0)进行了一些模型参数敏感性分析。我们的研究表明，减少绵羊/牛的出生数量、提高感染绵羊/牛的屠宰率、提高易感绵羊/牛的疫苗接种率以及降低疫苗接种损失率是控制布鲁氏菌病流行的有效策略。

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