Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Science. 2013 Aug 2;341(6145):492-8. doi: 10.1126/science.1240543.
The future impacts of anthropogenic global change on marine ecosystems are highly uncertain, but insights can be gained from past intervals of high atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure. The long-term geological record reveals an early Cenozoic warm climate that supported smaller polar ecosystems, few coral-algal reefs, expanded shallow-water platforms, longer food chains with less energy for top predators, and a less oxygenated ocean than today. The closest analogs for our likely future are climate transients, 10,000 to 200,000 years in duration, that occurred during the long early Cenozoic interval of elevated warmth. Although the future ocean will begin to resemble the past greenhouse world, it will retain elements of the present "icehouse" world long into the future. Changing temperatures and ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous change for 100,000 years.
人为全球变化对海洋生态系统的未来影响具有高度不确定性，但我们可以从过去大气二氧化碳分压较高的时期获得一些认识。长期的地质记录揭示了新生代早期的温暖气候，这种气候支持较小的极地生态系统、较少的珊瑚-藻类礁、扩大的浅水台地、更长的食物链和较少的顶级捕食者能量，以及比今天含氧量更低的海洋。与我们未来可能的情况最接近的是气候瞬变，持续时间为 1 万年至 20 万年，发生在长期的新生代早期温暖期。尽管未来的海洋将开始类似于过去的温室世界，但在未来很长一段时间内，它将保留现今“冰室”世界的某些元素。不断变化的温度和海洋酸化，加上海平面上升和海洋生产力的转变，将使海洋生态系统在 10 万年的时间里处于持续变化的状态。
