National Institute of Parasitic Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, WHO Collaborating Center for Malaria, Schistosomiasis and Filariasia, Shanghai, China.
PLoS One. 2013 Jul 30;8(7):e68766. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0068766. Print 2013.
To identify the major ecological drivers for malaria vector density using the structural equation model (SEM) in the Three Gorges Reservoir.
An 11-year longitudinal surveillance of malaria vector as well as its related ecological factors was carried out in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The Delphi method was used to identify associated ecological factors. The structural equation model was repeatedly corrected and improved by the corrected index, combined with the actual situation. The final model was defined by relative simplicity, best fitting as well as the practicality.
The final model indicated that the direct effects of temperature, livestock, humidity, and breeding on the vector were 0.015, -0.228, 0.450, 0.516 respectively, their total effects on the vector were 0.359, -0.112, 0.850, and 0.043 through different pathways.
SEM was effective and convenient in elucidating the mechanism by which malaria vector dynamics operated in this study. It identified that the breeding had the highest direct effect on vector and played a key role for mediating effect of temperature and humidity.
在三峡水库中使用结构方程模型（SEM）确定疟疾媒介密度的主要生态驱动因素。
在三峡水库中进行了为期 11 年的疟疾媒介及其相关生态因素的纵向监测。采用德尔菲法确定相关生态因素。结合实际情况，通过校正指数反复校正和改进结构方程模型。最终模型的定义是基于相对简单、最佳拟合和实用性。
最终模型表明，温度、牲畜、湿度和繁殖对媒介的直接影响分别为 0.015、-0.228、0.450 和 0.516，它们通过不同途径对媒介的总影响分别为 0.359、-0.112、0.850 和 0.043。
SEM 有效地阐明了本研究中疟疾媒介动态的作用机制。它确定了繁殖对媒介的直接影响最大，并且在温度和湿度的中介效应中起着关键作用。
